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Senin, 30 Juni 2008

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Stock Market

On the 40 year journey through the turmoil of a volatile stock market I've noticed "P/E Ratios," "Consensus Estimates," " Bull and Bear Markets," stock ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, star ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Also, stock ratings of "buy," "strong buy," "sell," "hold;" stock rankings of "market perform," "market outperform," "market underperform," "market underweight," "market overweight," "market equalweight," and "market neutral."

And there's more! The 40 year journey includes as well terms like "Relative Strength Indexes (RSI)," "Bollinger Bands," 10, 20, 50 and 200 day "moving averages," "short and long positions," charting services, margin accounts, point and figure charting.

Whew! Let's see, "butterfly spreads," "option calls and puts," "triple bottom and tops," "head and shoulder formations," "pennants," "flags," "cup and saucer formations," "wedges," "necklines," "ascending triangles," and a partridge in a pear tree.

Never has so much been written that has so little meaning for the long-term, dollar-cost-averaging, buying investor of company shares that have a historical record of raising their dividends year after year after year.

"The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook." - William James

There is really only one word that insures successful investing in the stock market, and for that matter, success for any endeavor, and that one word or option or rating is "desire."

The desire to be a success is a force that will negate all the "charts," " ratings," "consensus estimates," "P/E ratios," "moving averages," "ascending triangles," and, even a partridge in a pear tree.

To read the PREFACE from the book 'The Stockopoly Plan- Investing for Retirement' visit:

By Charles M. O'Melia

Trade Stocks for Real

I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why. Back testing and paper trading seem to be the most over emphasized techniques offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market fakes. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully. It's simple, place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn't, you have no worries because you can't lose. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don't fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual simulation portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don't prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with.

Don't worry about back testing for 20 years because historical back testing is never very accurate. The most accurate testing is real time. If you can back test real trades (actual trades that you have made in the past), then this would be just as good as real time testing (or forward testing). Back testing can get you somewhat of an idea of how your system will perform but there is no emotional attachments to this type of testing so it is not realistically accurate. We all know emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through real testing. Learn to ignore the talking heads and the people on TV and that internet chat room that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it real so you try to learn something, maybe money management.

I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn't care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out. I did allow margin because I use margin in my account but I saw other investors abusing the fake power of margin in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable. As a fellow investor, keep testing your system in real time and you will know what works and what doesn't based on real trades, not simulations. Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Back testing may convince some people but I am only convinced with what works now, in real time. Besides, why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? Back testing may be good for some people but I have been testing my systems in real time since the day I started investing seriously. Currently, I am testing the $60-$100 theory using options in my newest account. I will not have concrete data on this system for another year or two, most likely two years down the road. I could back test the system but how will that help me realistically going forward? It won't, it may show me some probabilities and the possible expectancy of the system but it won't guarantee anything until I place a position for real.

If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential system.

By Chris Perruna

The Problem With Hedge Funds

Are hedge funds a suitable investment for you? Hedge funds are an appropriate investment for qualified purchasers with a net worth above one million dollars and an annual income exceeding two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Purchasers are often required to sign an acknowledgement confirming their qualifications to invest in hedge funds. However, just because one is qualified to invest in a hedge fund doesn't necessarily mean they should do so. There is a major problem with this type of investment. Oftentimes, the risk associated with the fund is misrepresented, leading to investors being misguided into skewing their qualifications.

The term "hedge fund" is a generic term used to describe many unique investments. Put simply, the phrase is derived from the purpose - hedging the risk of investing. Hedge funds provide lower long-term returns in exchange for less volatility. The form of investment is not new, but their popularity certainly is. The newfound popularity of hedge funds has left many investors wondering what they are all about.

To shed a little light on a decidedly illusive investment tool, a quick run down is necessary. A hedge fund is typically a privately organized pooled investment fund, predominately invested in publicly traded securities. They are normally created as limited partnerships, consisting of one general partner and up to one hundred limited partners. The general partner usually receives a management fee and 10-20% of the profits from the fund. The success or failure of a hedge fund is often dependant on the competency of the fund manager, since they are more aggressively managed and traded than traditional mutual funds.

It should be noted that hedge funds have a higher failure rate than traditional funds. Numerous hedge funds fail by the second or third year of operation. Also, hedge funds are less transparent than traditional funds because some hedge fund managers do not reveal the securities they hold, or the extent to which they are leveraged. Hedge funds may have a higher turnover rate and be less tax efficient than traditional funds.

Along with the aforementioned downfalls associated with hedge funds, several more negatives should be noted. The management and performance incentive fees charged by the hedge fund manager, together with the trading costs and administrative fees can quickly add up, making B share mutual funds seem like a bargain. As stated earlier, only "qualified" purchasers are eligible to invest in hedge funds, leaving many would-be investors out in the cold. And liquidity, if available, is limited to quarterly release, and even then, investors are left at the mercy of the hedge fund manager.

The bottom line is, when dealing with hedge funds, get educated about your investment before jumping in. Discuss the option, both pros and cons, with your dealer, and know what you are getting into.

Is the Stock Market for You?

Many people would like to diversify their portfolios to expand their holdings. Making it big in the stock market has been a dream for many people who want to strike it rich. Many movies and books have been made portraying the ins and outs of the stock market, for some, dealing with the stock market can be very complex and complicated. There are many things needed to be understood and learned. In this article, a short overview will be provided to better understand the stock market and see the stock market is an option you would like to try.

When the stock market is concerned, you will hear terms such as stock options, stock index futures, convertibles and such. This could be quite confusing to the greenhorn but for some this is what they breathe day in and day out. To begin with, the stock market is the venue where publicly open company stocks are traded, bought and sold. The term stock market deals with all the stocks being traded all over the world. Most countries have their own stock market where in they deal with the financial instruments their country has. For example, in the United States, there is the NYSE, NASDAQ and Amex stock. Large companies though have been known to be traded in many places.

From the start, stock markets could be traded on the "trading floors" of a stock exchange where people would shout their tradings. As the market grew larger with more companies going public and with the availability of the internet, the stock market tradings can be done electronically online. Here, the prices of the shares of each company can be seen if any changes happen real time. All business dealings with the stock exchange and the brokers can be done even if they are not on the floors of the stock exchange.

Anyone can invest in the stock market. Before, individuals such as businessmen and people with money to invest dominated the stock market investors, now, large corporations and companies have become buyers and sellers. These "institutional" investors have increased the stock market making it a very good investment. Takeovers and merges have been a deciding factor in the rise and fall of the stock prices for these companies. Generally, investors can buy shares of the companies that have been opened to the public for trading. These shares represent a portion of the company and investors are called stockholders. These means that they own part of the company. The prices are determined by the growth of the company and their profits and success or by its losses as well. The movements of the prices of the stocks of company can be seen on stock market indices. Stock markets have stock market indices to provide that all important information of the price movement to the brokers and the investors.

Many people consider the stock market to be a very risky venture. As the prices drop and rise, your investment is on a roller coaster ride. There is no guarantee that the value of your stocks will go up. This is especially on cases stocks of companies that are just starting, but with the higher risk comes the bigger payoff. If the company makes it big you make a big profit. Stocks for starting companies are low and when it becomes a success, the prices will rise up. Large and well established companies and corporations have better chances with having their stocks growing.

Seasoned traders use many methods of analysis to see the trend of the growth of the company and their valuation. This way they can predict if the price of the stocks will go down or up. This movement of the price will determine whether they want to buy or sell the stock of a certain company. This will also determine the dividends the stock will pay. Dividends are the payment each stockholder receives from the profit of the company where he has invested in. Every year, the net profit of the company is divided among the shares of stocks existing.

While the stock market can be a bit intimidating, it is also a good place to invest your money. Like any business, the risk is always present. But with a good stockbroker, the stock market can be very profitable.

Are You A Stockaholic?

Today's society gives special recognition to alcoholics, sexaholics, binge-aholics, shopaholics, chocaholics and other "-aholics". What about stockaholics? Stockaholics are people who are overly obsessive about their stock market investments.

As approximately 50% of U.S. households directly or indirectly invest in the stock market, it is likely that there already exists a goodly number of undiagnosed stockaholics.

Are you a stockaholic?

To find out if you are a stockaholic answer Yes or No to the 10 short questions below ...

1. do you check your stocks every day?

2. are you depressed on weekends, because the market is not open?

3. do you hate to go away on vacation because you will be out of touch with the market?

4. do you subscribe to more than 3 financial publications?

5. do you dream about stocks?

6. do you daydream about making a killing in the stock market?

7. do you think your stock broker is your best friend?

8. have you tried different stock market strategies, only to find out they didn't work?

9. do you wish you could consistently beat the market?

10. do you wish you could make more money in the stock market?

If you answered yes to all or most of the questions you are a stockaholic ... or a very good investor. If stocks are interfering with your ability to enjoy life ... or if you are not making enough money in the stock market ... get help.

By Alan Korber

What the Hell is a Stock option?

A 'stock option' is a contract between two parties giving the buyer (also known as the 'taker') the right, but not the obligation, to either buy or sell a specific quantity of shares at a pre-agreed price (known as the 'strike price' or 'exercise price') by a certain future 'expiry' date. There are two different types of options that can be traded, known as 'call options' and 'put options'.

For an option contract to be traded there must be both a 'buyer' and a 'seller' involved in the transaction. The buyer pays an upfront amount; known as the 'premium', to the option seller (the seller is also often referred to as the 'writer' of the option contract). In the Australian market, each option contract typically covers 1,000 of the underlying shares and the premium is expressed as a specific number of cents per share.

Buying Call Options:

A Buyer of Calls aims to profit by a rising stock price, as they have locked in a "purchase" price at which they can buy the underlying shares at whenever they wish up until the expiry date.

Selling Call Options:
A Seller of Calls is committed to selling the underlying shares at a pre-agreed price, no matter how high they might get. In exchange for this potential obligation, they receive an upfront premium.

Buying Put Options:
A Buyer of Puts can profit by a decreasing stock price, as they have locked in a "selling" price at which they can sell the underlying shares up until the expiry date.

Selling Put Options:
A Seller of Puts is committed to buying shares at a pre-agreed price, no matter how low they might get. In exchange for this obligation, they receive an upfront premium.

OK now for some examples to show you a few basic ways of buying and selling put and call options:

So let's say you've found a share that you think will increase in price and think you can make a profit if you are right. Rather than buy the actual shares, you might decide to purchase some Call Options. This will enable you to spend much less capital but can still get the benefit from the rise in the share price.

Maybe you own 1,000 shares in a company and the share price appears to be flat and going nowhere, so you decide to sell a Call Option against those shares. This will earn you a premium income. This way, even if the shares are right where they started when the Expiry Date comes along, you've made a small amount of money.

Your share has gone though a recent rise and the share price seems to have flattened out and you are now concerned that your share price might fall. You decide to purchase some Put Options, knowing that if the shares do fall, you've locked in a selling price and now have a form of "insurance" on your shares to protect you from losing too much.

There's a share you'd be happy to own, but only if it was at a lower in price, so you decide to sell some Put Options at a Strike Price just below the current market price and you'll receive a premium upfront. When the Expiry Date comes along, if the share is above the Strike Price you won't have to buy the stock and will be able to retain the premium. If the share is under your Strike Price, you'll be Exercised and hence forced to buy the shares at the pre-agreed price.

Here a list of some important terms which you will find are regularly used when referring to options:

All Ordinaries Index:
The main Australian stock market price index which tracks the change in the Total market value of a range of stocks.

Ask/Ask Price:
The price a trader or market maker is willing to accept for selling a stock or option. Also referred to as the offer price.

When an option holder exercises the contract an option writer is selected to fulfill the obligation. The option writer is required to sell (in the case of a call) or purchase (in the case of a put) the underlying stock at the specified strike price.

At-Market or At-the-Market:
An order to buy or sell a stock or option at the current market price. Also referred to as a Market Order.

At-the-Money (ATM): An option whose strike price is equal to (or close to) the current price of the underlying stock.

At-the-Opening Order:
A market order that requires it to be executed at the opening of the market or of the trading of the security or else it is cancelled.

ATR Stop:
A stop set to activate if price drops a multiple of its Average True Range.

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX): Six Australian trading floors are linked through the Stock Exchange Automated Trading Systems (SEATS). Administrative headquarters are in Sydney.

Avoidable Risk: Risk items that can be eliminated through management. Bearish Someone is said to be a bear or be bearish if they think a stock or the market is going to trend down over a particular time frame. Also a negative or pessimistic outlook.

Bear Market: A declining stock market, usually over a prolonged period. Also, a market in which prices of a certain group of stocks are falling or are expected to fall.

Bear (or Bearish) Spread:
One of a variety of strategies involving two or more options (or options combined with a position in the underlying stock) that will profit from a fall in the price of the underlying stock.

Bear Call Spread:
The simultaneous writing of one call option with a lower strike price and the purchase of another call option with a higher strike price.

Bear Put Spread:
The simultaneous purchase of one put option with a higher strike price and the writing of another put option with a lower strike price.

Bid/Ask Quotation:
The latest bid and ask prices for a stock or option contract.

Bid/Ask Spread:
The difference in price between the latest available bid and ask quotations.

Bid Price:
The highest price a potential buyer or market maker is willing to pay for a particular stock or option.

Blue Chip Stock:
A term derived from poker where blue chips held the most value. Blue chips in the stock market are those stocks that have the most market capitalization.

An individual or firm who is paid a commission for executing stock market orders on behalf of their customers. A broker at a brokerage firm deals directly with customers. A floor broker on the trading floor of an exchange actually executes someone else's trading orders.

The commission brokers charge for executing stock market orders. Based on either a schedule of rates or a percentage basis.

Someone is said to be a bull or be bullish if they think a stock or the market is going to trend up over a particular time frame. Also a positive or optimistic outlook.

Bull Market:
A rising stock market, usually over a prolonged period. Also, a market in which prices of a certain group of stocks are rising or are expected to rise.

Bull (or Bullish) Spread:
One of a variety of strategies involving two or more options (or options combined with an underlying stock position) that will profit from a rise in the price of the underlying stock.

Bull Call Spread:
The simultaneous purchase of one call option with a lower strike price and the writing of another call option with a higher strike price.

Bull Put Spread:
The simultaneous writing of one put option with a higher strike price and the purchase of another put option with a lower strike price.

If you purchase an option contract, regardless of whether you are opening or closing a position, you are a buyer.

A covered call position in which stock is purchased and an equivalent number of calls written at the same time. This position may be transacted as a spread order, with both sides (buying stock and writing calls) being executed simultaneously. Refer also Covered Call.

Call Option:
A contract that gives the holder of the option the right, but not the obligation, to buy a certain quantity of shares of an underlying stock from the seller or writer of the option at a specific price (strike price) up to a specified date(expiration). For the writer of a call option, the contract represents an obligation to sell the underlying stock if the option is assigned.

A call or put option issued by the OCC.

Contract Size:
The amount of the underlying stock covered by the options contract. One stock option contract consists of 100 shares (USA) or 1000 (Australia and UK) - unless adjusted for a special circumstance like a stock split or a stock dividend.

To close out an open position. This term is used most frequently to describe the purchase of an option or stock to close out an existing short position.

Covered Call:
The selling or writing of a call option while holding the underlying stock. By receiving a premium, the writer seeks to gain additional return on the underlying stock or gain some element of protection from a decline in the value of that underlying stock.

Covered Cash-Secured Put:
An option strategy in which a put option is written against a sufficient amount of cash (or T-bills) to pay for the stock purchase if the short option is assigned.

Covered Combination:
An option strategy in which a call and a put with the same expiration, but different strike prices, are written against the underlying stock. In reality, this is not a fully covered strategy because assignment on the short put would require purchase of additional stock.

Covered Option:
An open short option position that is fully offset by a corresponding stock or option position. That is, a covered call could be offset by long stock or a long call, while a covered put could be offset by a long put or a short stock position. This insures that if the owner of the option exercises, the writer of the option will not have a problem fulfilling the delivery requirements.

Credit spread:
A spread strategy that increases the account's cash balance when it is established. A bull spread with puts and a bear spread with calls are examples of credit spreads.

Debit Spread:
An option spread strategy that decreases the account's cash balance when it is established. A bull spread with calls and a bear spread with puts are examples of debit spreads.

A term used to describe how the theoretical value of an option erodes or reduces with the passage of time. Time decay is specifically quantified by theta.

Diagonal Spread:
A strategy involving the simultaneous purchase and writing of two options of the same type that have different strike prices and different expiration dates.

The potential for prices to move down. Also, the potential risk one takes with directional trading.

Exchange Traded Options (ETOs):
Options issued by stock exchanges, not companies. Derived from stocks.

To exercise an option contract by buying (in the case of a call) or selling (in the case of a put) the underlying stock at the Strike Price.

Exercise Price:
The price at which you may buy the underlying stock, if you hold a call, or sell the underlying stock, if you hold a put. Also referred to as the strike price.

Last day on which an option can be traded. The date after which an option is no longer valid and you can no longer exercise it.

Extrinsic Value:
The price of an option less its intrinsic value. Same as time value.

In-the-Money (ITM):
If you were to exercise an option and it would generate a profit, it is known as being in-the-money. In other words it has intrinsic value. A call option is ITM if the strike price is less than the current price of the underlying stock. Puts are ITM when the strike price is above the current stock price.

Intrinsic Value:
The value of an option if it were to expire immediately. OTM and ATM options have no intrinsic value. For ITM options, the intrinsic value is the difference between the strike price and the current stock price.

Using a smaller amount of money to control an investment of greater value. For example, options provide greater leverage than shares.

Liquidity / Liquid Market:
A trading environment characterized by high trading volume, a narrow spread between the bid and ask prices, and the ability to trade larger sized orders without significant price changes. Liquidity in stocks is measured by trading volume and in options is measured by what is known as open interest.

When you purchase stock through your broker you can do so using cash or margin. Most brokers offer a margin facility where you only have to put up a portion of the cash required (typically 50%). The balance of the funds are borrowed from the broker.

Margin Account:
A traders account in which a brokerage firm lends the customer part of the purchase price of securities.

Margin Call:
If the price of stock that a trader has bought falls below a set proportion of the initial cash investment (for example 75%) they will receive a margin call. The trader is then required to either deposit additional funds into their account or sell some shares to cover the shortfall.

Margin Requirement:
The minimum equity required to support a position where margin is used.

Market Depth:
A summary of current bids and ask prices on a particular stock or option. An indication of liquidity.

An exchange member on the trading floor who buys and sells stocks or options for his or her own account and who has the responsibility of making bids and offers and maintaining a fair and orderly market.

Money Management:
Strategies used to ensure a trader's survival and profitability. Key elements are (a) capital preservation; (b) cutting losses; and (c) taking profits.

Naked Call:
The writer of the option does not hold the shares of the underlying stock represented by the option.

Naked Option:
A short option position that is not fully covered if notification of assignment is received.

Naked Put:
Writer of a put option not short the underlying stock. Out-of-the-Money (OTM) An option whose exercise price has no intrinsic value is know as out-of-the money. A call option is OTM if its strike price is above the current stock price. Puts are OTM when the strike price is below the stock price.

Paper Trading:
Simulated trading but without putting money into the market.

Premium: Price a buyer pays to an option writer for granting an option contract.

Rolling: A trading action in which the trader simultaneously closes an open option position and creates a new option position at a different strike price, different expiration, or both. Variations of this include rolling up, rolling down, rolling out and diagonal rolling.

One unit of ownership of stock.

An options strategy where you hold two or more simultaneous positions. Also refer to Bid-Ask Spread.

Spread Rolls:
Using a spread order to bridge the closing of one position and the establishment of a new one.

Units of ownership of public companies.

Time Decay:
The decline in value of an option as the expiration date approaches.

Time Spread:
An option strategy which involves the purchase of a longer-term option (call or put) and the writing of an equal number of nearer-term options of the same type and strike price. Also known as a calendar or horizontal spread.

Unavoidable Risk:
Risk items that cannot be eliminated but can still be managed.

This is just an introduction to world of exchanged traded options and I hope this may have sparked an interest inside you to explore the world further.

By Raymond Heye

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