Bisnis Saham | Forex Trading | Forex Online

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Stock Market

2008-06-30T01:12:00.009-07:00

On the 40 year journey through the turmoil of a volatile stock market I've noticed "P/E Ratios," "Consensus Estimates," " Bull and Bear Markets," stock ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, star ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Also, stock ratings of "buy," "strong buy," "sell," "hold;" stock rankings of "market perform," "market outperform," "market underperform," "market underweight," "market overweight," "market equalweight," and "market neutral."

And there's more! The 40 year journey includes as well terms like "Relative Strength Indexes (RSI)," "Bollinger Bands," 10, 20, 50 and 200 day "moving averages," "short and long positions," charting services, margin accounts, point and figure charting.

Whew! Let's see, "butterfly spreads," "option calls and puts," "triple bottom and tops," "head and shoulder formations," "pennants," "flags," "cup and saucer formations," "wedges," "necklines," "ascending triangles," and a partridge in a pear tree.

Never has so much been written that has so little meaning for the long-term, dollar-cost-averaging, buying investor of company shares that have a historical record of raising their dividends year after year after year.

"The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook." - William James

There is really only one word that insures successful investing in the stock market, and for that matter, success for any endeavor, and that one word or option or rating is "desire."

The desire to be a success is a force that will negate all the "charts," " ratings," "consensus estimates," "P/E ratios," "moving averages," "ascending triangles," and, even a partridge in a pear tree.

To read the PREFACE from the book 'The Stockopoly Plan- Investing for Retirement' visit: http://www.thestockopolyplan.com

By Charles M. O'Melia

Trade Stocks for Real

2008-06-30T01:12:00.007-07:00

I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why. Back testing and paper trading seem to be the most over emphasized techniques offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market fakes. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully. It's simple, place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn't, you have no worries because you can't lose. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don't fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual simulation portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don't prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with.

Don't worry about back testing for 20 years because historical back testing is never very accurate. The most accurate testing is real time. If you can back test real trades (actual trades that you have made in the past), then this would be just as good as real time testing (or forward testing). Back testing can get you somewhat of an idea of how your system will perform but there is no emotional attachments to this type of testing so it is not realistically accurate. We all know emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through real testing. Learn to ignore the talking heads and the people on TV and that internet chat room that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it real so you try to learn something, maybe money management.

I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn't care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out. I did allow margin because I use margin in my account but I saw other investors abusing the fake power of margin in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable. As a fellow investor, keep testing your system in real time and you will know what works and what doesn't based on real trades, not simulations. Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Back testing may convince some people but I am only convinced with what works now, in real time. Besides, why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? Back testing may be good for some people but I have been testing my systems in real time since the day I started investing seriously. Currently, I am testing the $60-$100 theory using options in my newest account. I will not have concrete data on this system for another year or two, most likely two years down the road. I could back test the system but how will that help me realistically going forward? It won't, it may show me some probabilities and the possible expectancy of the system but it won't guarantee anything until I place a position for real.

If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential system.

By Chris Perruna

The Problem With Hedge Funds

2008-06-30T01:12:00.005-07:00

Are hedge funds a suitable investment for you? Hedge funds are an appropriate investment for qualified purchasers with a net worth above one million dollars and an annual income exceeding two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Purchasers are often required to sign an acknowledgement confirming their qualifications to invest in hedge funds. However, just because one is qualified to invest in a hedge fund doesn't necessarily mean they should do so. There is a major problem with this type of investment. Oftentimes, the risk associated with the fund is misrepresented, leading to investors being misguided into skewing their qualifications.

The term "hedge fund" is a generic term used to describe many unique investments. Put simply, the phrase is derived from the purpose - hedging the risk of investing. Hedge funds provide lower long-term returns in exchange for less volatility. The form of investment is not new, but their popularity certainly is. The newfound popularity of hedge funds has left many investors wondering what they are all about.

To shed a little light on a decidedly illusive investment tool, a quick run down is necessary. A hedge fund is typically a privately organized pooled investment fund, predominately invested in publicly traded securities. They are normally created as limited partnerships, consisting of one general partner and up to one hundred limited partners. The general partner usually receives a management fee and 10-20% of the profits from the fund. The success or failure of a hedge fund is often dependant on the competency of the fund manager, since they are more aggressively managed and traded than traditional mutual funds.

It should be noted that hedge funds have a higher failure rate than traditional funds. Numerous hedge funds fail by the second or third year of operation. Also, hedge funds are less transparent than traditional funds because some hedge fund managers do not reveal the securities they hold, or the extent to which they are leveraged. Hedge funds may have a higher turnover rate and be less tax efficient than traditional funds.

Along with the aforementioned downfalls associated with hedge funds, several more negatives should be noted. The management and performance incentive fees charged by the hedge fund manager, together with the trading costs and administrative fees can quickly add up, making B share mutual funds seem like a bargain. As stated earlier, only "qualified" purchasers are eligible to invest in hedge funds, leaving many would-be investors out in the cold. And liquidity, if available, is limited to quarterly release, and even then, investors are left at the mercy of the hedge fund manager.

The bottom line is, when dealing with hedge funds, get educated about your investment before jumping in. Discuss the option, both pros and cons, with your dealer, and know what you are getting into.

Is the Stock Market for You?

2008-06-30T01:12:00.003-07:00

Many people would like to diversify their portfolios to expand their holdings. Making it big in the stock market has been a dream for many people who want to strike it rich. Many movies and books have been made portraying the ins and outs of the stock market, for some, dealing with the stock market can be very complex and complicated. There are many things needed to be understood and learned. In this article, a short overview will be provided to better understand the stock market and see the stock market is an option you would like to try.

When the stock market is concerned, you will hear terms such as stock options, stock index futures, convertibles and such. This could be quite confusing to the greenhorn but for some this is what they breathe day in and day out. To begin with, the stock market is the venue where publicly open company stocks are traded, bought and sold. The term stock market deals with all the stocks being traded all over the world. Most countries have their own stock market where in they deal with the financial instruments their country has. For example, in the United States, there is the NYSE, NASDAQ and Amex stock. Large companies though have been known to be traded in many places.

From the start, stock markets could be traded on the "trading floors" of a stock exchange where people would shout their tradings. As the market grew larger with more companies going public and with the availability of the internet, the stock market tradings can be done electronically online. Here, the prices of the shares of each company can be seen if any changes happen real time. All business dealings with the stock exchange and the brokers can be done even if they are not on the floors of the stock exchange.

Anyone can invest in the stock market. Before, individuals such as businessmen and people with money to invest dominated the stock market investors, now, large corporations and companies have become buyers and sellers. These "institutional" investors have increased the stock market making it a very good investment. Takeovers and merges have been a deciding factor in the rise and fall of the stock prices for these companies. Generally, investors can buy shares of the companies that have been opened to the public for trading. These shares represent a portion of the company and investors are called stockholders. These means that they own part of the company. The prices are determined by the growth of the company and their profits and success or by its losses as well. The movements of the prices of the stocks of company can be seen on stock market indices. Stock markets have stock market indices to provide that all important information of the price movement to the brokers and the investors.

Many people consider the stock market to be a very risky venture. As the prices drop and rise, your investment is on a roller coaster ride. There is no guarantee that the value of your stocks will go up. This is especially on cases stocks of companies that are just starting, but with the higher risk comes the bigger payoff. If the company makes it big you make a big profit. Stocks for starting companies are low and when it becomes a success, the prices will rise up. Large and well established companies and corporations have better chances with having their stocks growing.

Seasoned traders use many methods of analysis to see the trend of the growth of the company and their valuation. This way they can predict if the price of the stocks will go down or up. This movement of the price will determine whether they want to buy or sell the stock of a certain company. This will also determine the dividends the stock will pay. Dividends are the payment each stockholder receives from the profit of the company where he has invested in. Every year, the net profit of the company is divided among the shares of stocks existing.

While the stock market can be a bit intimidating, it is also a good place to invest your money. Like any business, the risk is always present. But with a good stockbroker, the stock market can be very profitable.

Are You A Stockaholic?

2008-06-30T01:12:00.001-07:00

Today's society gives special recognition to alcoholics, sexaholics, binge-aholics, shopaholics, chocaholics and other "-aholics". What about stockaholics? Stockaholics are people who are overly obsessive about their stock market investments.

As approximately 50% of U.S. households directly or indirectly invest in the stock market, it is likely that there already exists a goodly number of undiagnosed stockaholics.

Are you a stockaholic?

To find out if you are a stockaholic answer Yes or No to the 10 short questions below ...

1. do you check your stocks every day?

2. are you depressed on weekends, because the market is not open?

3. do you hate to go away on vacation because you will be out of touch with the market?

4. do you subscribe to more than 3 financial publications?

5. do you dream about stocks?

6. do you daydream about making a killing in the stock market?

7. do you think your stock broker is your best friend?

8. have you tried different stock market strategies, only to find out they didn't work?

9. do you wish you could consistently beat the market?

10. do you wish you could make more money in the stock market?

If you answered yes to all or most of the questions you are a stockaholic ... or a very good investor. If stocks are interfering with your ability to enjoy life ... or if you are not making enough money in the stock market ... get help.

By Alan Korber

What the Hell is a Stock option?

2008-06-30T01:11:00.013-07:00

A 'stock option' is a contract between two parties giving the buyer (also known as the 'taker') the right, but not the obligation, to either buy or sell a specific quantity of shares at a pre-agreed price (known as the 'strike price' or 'exercise price') by a certain future 'expiry' date. There are two different types of options that can be traded, known as 'call options' and 'put options'.

For an option contract to be traded there must be both a 'buyer' and a 'seller' involved in the transaction. The buyer pays an upfront amount; known as the 'premium', to the option seller (the seller is also often referred to as the 'writer' of the option contract). In the Australian market, each option contract typically covers 1,000 of the underlying shares and the premium is expressed as a specific number of cents per share.

Buying Call Options:

A Buyer of Calls aims to profit by a rising stock price, as they have locked in a "purchase" price at which they can buy the underlying shares at whenever they wish up until the expiry date.

Selling Call Options:
A Seller of Calls is committed to selling the underlying shares at a pre-agreed price, no matter how high they might get. In exchange for this potential obligation, they receive an upfront premium.

Buying Put Options:
A Buyer of Puts can profit by a decreasing stock price, as they have locked in a "selling" price at which they can sell the underlying shares up until the expiry date.

Selling Put Options:
A Seller of Puts is committed to buying shares at a pre-agreed price, no matter how low they might get. In exchange for this obligation, they receive an upfront premium.

OK now for some examples to show you a few basic ways of buying and selling put and call options:

So let's say you've found a share that you think will increase in price and think you can make a profit if you are right. Rather than buy the actual shares, you might decide to purchase some Call Options. This will enable you to spend much less capital but can still get the benefit from the rise in the share price.

Maybe you own 1,000 shares in a company and the share price appears to be flat and going nowhere, so you decide to sell a Call Option against those shares. This will earn you a premium income. This way, even if the shares are right where they started when the Expiry Date comes along, you've made a small amount of money.

Your share has gone though a recent rise and the share price seems to have flattened out and you are now concerned that your share price might fall. You decide to purchase some Put Options, knowing that if the shares do fall, you've locked in a selling price and now have a form of "insurance" on your shares to protect you from losing too much.

There's a share you'd be happy to own, but only if it was at a lower in price, so you decide to sell some Put Options at a Strike Price just below the current market price and you'll receive a premium upfront. When the Expiry Date comes along, if the share is above the Strike Price you won't have to buy the stock and will be able to retain the premium. If the share is under your Strike Price, you'll be Exercised and hence forced to buy the shares at the pre-agreed price.

Here a list of some important terms which you will find are regularly used when referring to options:

All Ordinaries Index:
The main Australian stock market price index which tracks the change in the Total market value of a range of stocks.

Ask/Ask Price:
The price a trader or market maker is willing to accept for selling a stock or option. Also referred to as the offer price.

Assignment:
When an option holder exercises the contract an option writer is selected to fulfill the obligation. The option writer is required to sell (in the case of a call) or purchase (in the case of a put) the underlying stock at the specified strike price.

At-Market or At-the-Market:
An order to buy or sell a stock or option at the current market price. Also referred to as a Market Order.

At-the-Money (ATM): An option whose strike price is equal to (or close to) the current price of the underlying stock.

At-the-Opening Order:
A market order that requires it to be executed at the opening of the market or of the trading of the security or else it is cancelled.

ATR Stop:
A stop set to activate if price drops a multiple of its Average True Range.

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX): Six Australian trading floors are linked through the Stock Exchange Automated Trading Systems (SEATS). Administrative headquarters are in Sydney.

Avoidable Risk: Risk items that can be eliminated through management. Bearish Someone is said to be a bear or be bearish if they think a stock or the market is going to trend down over a particular time frame. Also a negative or pessimistic outlook.

Bear Market: A declining stock market, usually over a prolonged period. Also, a market in which prices of a certain group of stocks are falling or are expected to fall.

Bear (or Bearish) Spread:
One of a variety of strategies involving two or more options (or options combined with a position in the underlying stock) that will profit from a fall in the price of the underlying stock.

Bear Call Spread:
The simultaneous writing of one call option with a lower strike price and the purchase of another call option with a higher strike price.

Bear Put Spread:
The simultaneous purchase of one put option with a higher strike price and the writing of another put option with a lower strike price.

Bid/Ask Quotation:
The latest bid and ask prices for a stock or option contract.

Bid/Ask Spread:
The difference in price between the latest available bid and ask quotations.

Bid Price:
The highest price a potential buyer or market maker is willing to pay for a particular stock or option.

Blue Chip Stock:
A term derived from poker where blue chips held the most value. Blue chips in the stock market are those stocks that have the most market capitalization.

Broker:
An individual or firm who is paid a commission for executing stock market orders on behalf of their customers. A broker at a brokerage firm deals directly with customers. A floor broker on the trading floor of an exchange actually executes someone else's trading orders.

Brokerage:
The commission brokers charge for executing stock market orders. Based on either a schedule of rates or a percentage basis.

Bullish:
Someone is said to be a bull or be bullish if they think a stock or the market is going to trend up over a particular time frame. Also a positive or optimistic outlook.

Bull Market:
A rising stock market, usually over a prolonged period. Also, a market in which prices of a certain group of stocks are rising or are expected to rise.

Bull (or Bullish) Spread:
One of a variety of strategies involving two or more options (or options combined with an underlying stock position) that will profit from a rise in the price of the underlying stock.

Bull Call Spread:
The simultaneous purchase of one call option with a lower strike price and the writing of another call option with a higher strike price.

Bull Put Spread:
The simultaneous writing of one put option with a higher strike price and the purchase of another put option with a lower strike price.

Buyer:
If you purchase an option contract, regardless of whether you are opening or closing a position, you are a buyer.

Buy-Write:
A covered call position in which stock is purchased and an equivalent number of calls written at the same time. This position may be transacted as a spread order, with both sides (buying stock and writing calls) being executed simultaneously. Refer also Covered Call.

Call Option:
A contract that gives the holder of the option the right, but not the obligation, to buy a certain quantity of shares of an underlying stock from the seller or writer of the option at a specific price (strike price) up to a specified date(expiration). For the writer of a call option, the contract represents an obligation to sell the underlying stock if the option is assigned.

Contract:
A call or put option issued by the OCC.

Contract Size:
The amount of the underlying stock covered by the options contract. One stock option contract consists of 100 shares (USA) or 1000 (Australia and UK) - unless adjusted for a special circumstance like a stock split or a stock dividend.

Cover:
To close out an open position. This term is used most frequently to describe the purchase of an option or stock to close out an existing short position.

Covered Call:
The selling or writing of a call option while holding the underlying stock. By receiving a premium, the writer seeks to gain additional return on the underlying stock or gain some element of protection from a decline in the value of that underlying stock.

Covered Cash-Secured Put:
An option strategy in which a put option is written against a sufficient amount of cash (or T-bills) to pay for the stock purchase if the short option is assigned.

Covered Combination:
An option strategy in which a call and a put with the same expiration, but different strike prices, are written against the underlying stock. In reality, this is not a fully covered strategy because assignment on the short put would require purchase of additional stock.

Covered Option:
An open short option position that is fully offset by a corresponding stock or option position. That is, a covered call could be offset by long stock or a long call, while a covered put could be offset by a long put or a short stock position. This insures that if the owner of the option exercises, the writer of the option will not have a problem fulfilling the delivery requirements.

Credit spread:
A spread strategy that increases the account's cash balance when it is established. A bull spread with puts and a bear spread with calls are examples of credit spreads.

Debit Spread:
An option spread strategy that decreases the account's cash balance when it is established. A bull spread with calls and a bear spread with puts are examples of debit spreads.

Decay:
A term used to describe how the theoretical value of an option erodes or reduces with the passage of time. Time decay is specifically quantified by theta.

Diagonal Spread:
A strategy involving the simultaneous purchase and writing of two options of the same type that have different strike prices and different expiration dates.

Downside:
The potential for prices to move down. Also, the potential risk one takes with directional trading.

Exchange Traded Options (ETOs):
Options issued by stock exchanges, not companies. Derived from stocks.

Exercise:
To exercise an option contract by buying (in the case of a call) or selling (in the case of a put) the underlying stock at the Strike Price.

Exercise Price:
The price at which you may buy the underlying stock, if you hold a call, or sell the underlying stock, if you hold a put. Also referred to as the strike price.

Expiration:
Last day on which an option can be traded. The date after which an option is no longer valid and you can no longer exercise it.

Extrinsic Value:
The price of an option less its intrinsic value. Same as time value.

In-the-Money (ITM):
If you were to exercise an option and it would generate a profit, it is known as being in-the-money. In other words it has intrinsic value. A call option is ITM if the strike price is less than the current price of the underlying stock. Puts are ITM when the strike price is above the current stock price.

Intrinsic Value:
The value of an option if it were to expire immediately. OTM and ATM options have no intrinsic value. For ITM options, the intrinsic value is the difference between the strike price and the current stock price.

Leverage:
Using a smaller amount of money to control an investment of greater value. For example, options provide greater leverage than shares.

Liquidity / Liquid Market:
A trading environment characterized by high trading volume, a narrow spread between the bid and ask prices, and the ability to trade larger sized orders without significant price changes. Liquidity in stocks is measured by trading volume and in options is measured by what is known as open interest.

Margin:
When you purchase stock through your broker you can do so using cash or margin. Most brokers offer a margin facility where you only have to put up a portion of the cash required (typically 50%). The balance of the funds are borrowed from the broker.

Margin Account:
A traders account in which a brokerage firm lends the customer part of the purchase price of securities.

Margin Call:
If the price of stock that a trader has bought falls below a set proportion of the initial cash investment (for example 75%) they will receive a margin call. The trader is then required to either deposit additional funds into their account or sell some shares to cover the shortfall.

Margin Requirement:
The minimum equity required to support a position where margin is used.

Market Depth:
A summary of current bids and ask prices on a particular stock or option. An indication of liquidity.

Market-Maker:
An exchange member on the trading floor who buys and sells stocks or options for his or her own account and who has the responsibility of making bids and offers and maintaining a fair and orderly market.

Money Management:
Strategies used to ensure a trader's survival and profitability. Key elements are (a) capital preservation; (b) cutting losses; and (c) taking profits.

Naked Call:
The writer of the option does not hold the shares of the underlying stock represented by the option.

Naked Option:
A short option position that is not fully covered if notification of assignment is received.

Naked Put:
Writer of a put option not short the underlying stock. Out-of-the-Money (OTM) An option whose exercise price has no intrinsic value is know as out-of-the money. A call option is OTM if its strike price is above the current stock price. Puts are OTM when the strike price is below the stock price.

Paper Trading:
Simulated trading but without putting money into the market.

Premium: Price a buyer pays to an option writer for granting an option contract.

Rolling: A trading action in which the trader simultaneously closes an open option position and creates a new option position at a different strike price, different expiration, or both. Variations of this include rolling up, rolling down, rolling out and diagonal rolling.

Share:
One unit of ownership of stock.

Spread:
An options strategy where you hold two or more simultaneous positions. Also refer to Bid-Ask Spread.

Spread Rolls:
Using a spread order to bridge the closing of one position and the establishment of a new one.

Stocks:
Units of ownership of public companies.

Time Decay:
The decline in value of an option as the expiration date approaches.

Time Spread:
An option strategy which involves the purchase of a longer-term option (call or put) and the writing of an equal number of nearer-term options of the same type and strike price. Also known as a calendar or horizontal spread.

Unavoidable Risk:
Risk items that cannot be eliminated but can still be managed.

This is just an introduction to world of exchanged traded options and I hope this may have sparked an interest inside you to explore the world further.

By Raymond Heye

Hot Stock Investing ... How to Pick Hot Stocks with Momentum Stock Trading

2008-06-30T01:11:00.011-07:00

Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the fastest & most effective ways to harvest BIG piles of cash in the stock market.

The problem is that if you don't know what stocks to look for and how to approach them while limiting your risk, you won't even get close to making some profits.

You don't necessarily have to trade momentum hot stocks all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter the best opportunities while at the same time limiting your risk.

If you want to learn how to trade and pick stocks with momentum in a simple yet effective way every week, just log on to HotInPlayStocks.com right now and discover what youve been missing.

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On Line Stock Trading: Small Cap & Micro Stocks Go Up and Down - How Can You Profit?

2008-06-30T01:11:00.009-07:00

Success in small cap & micro cap stock trading like with any other business in life comes from being able to see the big picture and from paying attention to the small details.

Let's say for example that you are a business owner and you have a jewelry store on a given street just like the guy in the other corner does, but still the other guy is making 5 times more profits than you are only because he's doing something different. He knows something that you still don't and that's what makes him more profitable.

The funny thing about this kind of situation is that you could be just a small distance away from being as successful as he is.

We know that day trading small cap stocks with momentum is not the only way to make money in the stock market. But it can be the fastest way when you do it right.

We also understand that a lot of people shy away from short term momentum trading and think that only a few traders can profit from it. It's true. Only those short term traders with proven knowledge have the ability to profit consistently when stocks go up or down.

You don't necessarily have to trade small cap stocks with positive or negative momentum all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter with the best opportunities and at the same time limit your risk.

So, What is This Stock Market Thing Anyway?

2008-06-30T01:11:00.007-07:00

We've all heard of the stock market and probably have a general idea of what it is and how it works either from high school economics classes, television financial reports, and the countless film depictions of what happens on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. But how does it really work and what is meant by "playing the stock market?"

The Stock Market in a Nutshell

Companies sell shares of stock as a means of raising capital. For example, let's say that the XYZ corporation, makers of the finest whatsidoos and thingamabobs in the country, wants to open a new factory. Doing so will require a hundred million dollars. The company can get a loan from a bank, but it would wind up in debt. So, instead of borrowing, it decides to offer additional shares of stock. As investors purchase the stock they are giving the company the capital it needs to do business. In return the stockholders actually own a part of the company and have some say in its activities. If XYZ does well in the thingamabob market, its stock will raise in value as more people will want to have a piece of XYZ for themselves. If it doesn't do so well (maybe it gets undersold by the Ichi Nee company, a Japanese conglomerate that has found a way to make smaller, cheaper thingamabobs), less investors will buy the stock, current stockholders may try to sell, and the value of the stock drops. The price of individual stocks will rise and fall several times a day. The price for a certain stock you may see on the evening news for any particular company represents where the stock was valued at the end of the business day. It will also tell you whether that price rose or fell from the previous day. It can be enough to make an investor tear his hair out. Didn't you ever wonder why nearly all economists are bald?

"Playing" the Stock Market

You may have heard people refer to "playing" the stock market as if it were all a big game of Monopoly. This is an adequate term because that's exactly what some people do, but the game is more like Roulette - sometimes of the Russian variety. People who "play" the market typically invest for short periods of time in the hopes to get a quick return. They will buy some stock, wait fro the price to go up, then sell right away and invest in another stock and await the next profit. They may do this several times a day in some cases as prices fluctuate. This can be a very risky way to behave because a lot of money can be lost, but a lot can be earned as well. It's almost like a trip to Vegas without Wayne Newton.

by Mika Hamilton

Choosing a Stock Broker

2008-06-30T01:11:00.005-07:00

If you were to find that you had some severe illness that required surgery, would you attempt to perform that surgery upon yourself? What if your car broke down and needed a valve job? Would you get out the Craftsman tool set you got for Christmas three years ago and start tinkering under the hood even though you know absolutely nothing about engines? Of course you wouldn't do either of these things because there are times in life when we know we must seek the assistance of a professional. So why is it that so many people try to make their own investment decisions without consulting a professional stock broker?

A stock broker is a trained financial professional who knows how to watch the trends of the stock market, is kept up to date on financial developments by her brokerage firm, and knows how to make wise and sound investment decisions. When you work with a stock broker you have the benefit of not only the broker's personal experience and expertise, but that of the entire brokerage firm. Since the brokerage firm and the stock broker do well when you do well, you know that they are working in your best interest.

When you're ready to invest in the stock market, it is always advisable to seek the expertise and advice of a professional stock broker. It just makes sense to do so and makes much more sense than trying to "go it alone." Choosing a stock broker can sometimes mean the difference between success and failure in the investment market. After all, if you wouldn't dream about dismantling your plasma television to try and figure out why you can't seem to tune in Wheel of Fortune for fear you could possibly ruin the set, why would you take the same chances with your financial future?

by Mika Hamilton

Stock Market System ... ONLINE STOCK TRADING ... Beyond Day Trading Basics & Tips

2008-06-30T01:11:00.003-07:00

Day trading is all about making buy and sell decisions. When you make a trade either your going to lose money or your going to make money, and some other times you will break even. When you win some body else will lose and so forth, but that's NOT what's important.

The most important aspect of day trading is the knowledge FILTER you employ to make your buy/sell decisions. There are many "fantastic" strategies outhere, but you need to test them in order to discover which ones help you the most. That's part of your homework as a daytrader. Test, test and test again.

Complicated strategies that rely on a "boat load" of technical indicators can make you slow, and being slow in this game can be as dangerous as not knowing what to do in the first place.

I think the worst thing that can happen to a beginner trader is to get information overload. It's better to go step by step, and test a simple strategy that can show you how to focus on concrete ways to make money.

Fortunatly there are some good sites on the web today that can show you how to trade in a practical and effective way. One of those sites is Profitable Stock Market ( ProfitableStockMarket.com )

In the end, day trading is all about buying and selling according to your knowledge FILTER. Once you master and follow youre proven filter parameters like a clock, you can expect to start making serious amounts of cash on a consistent basis.

Why Investors Use Financial Planners

2008-06-30T01:11:00.001-07:00

Do you have a financial planner? Does one of your friends have a financial planner? Maybe you take your advice from your broker. As I have said countless times before a broker will make you broker. And a financial planner won't do any better. I know. You thought they would.

Let's look at the real reason investors choose to take advice from these so called "experts". Once they get you into their office or sitting with you at the dining room table or kitchen table you are doomed. Mr. F.P. has come prepared with beautiful slick color brochures and will have a presentation that will utterly confuse, bedazzle and befuddle. You will sit there and be afraid to ask a question because you know it is so dumb. You can't say 'no' or you will be admitting how dumb you are. And he knows that.

It is not that he is a liar. (I hope.) It is that all financial planners and brokers are taught the Wall Street method of "making money". Unfortunately it doesn't work.

The basic things that have been pounded into their heads are false. Let's look at the big three: Do Research, Dollar Cost Average and Buy and Hold. There are others, but these you will hear from every broker and financial planner because that is what the big brokerage companies and mutual fund families want. They want your money and they want to keep it even when the stocks or funds you own go down. In fact, buy some more.

Research is like blowing in the wind. You will be inundated with green sheets, blue sheets, red sheets, slick full color glossies, videos, etc., etc. Think about this. If you can obtain this information then so can everyone else. Everything that is known about a particular stock is reflected in the last price. Morningstar will sell you a beautiful package about a company, but it is worthless. What you really want to know is will it go up after I buy it?

Of course, if it goes down you will be encouraged to buy more to average out your price so that when it heads up again you will make a fortune. Yes, and pigs can fly.

If it does go down your advisor may say to hold on as the market always comes back. He doesn't tell you it may take 20 years or that the company might go out of business. Buy and Hold is the greatest myth of Wall Street. No one ever tells you to sell. Have you been told you don't have a loss until you take it? Please!

You got that advisor because you have not admitted to your self that you cannot pull the trigger. When you have a stock or fund that is falling you don't want to sell. You have to take charge of your money. Just you.

When you look back at the performance of most financial planners from 2000 to 2003 you know you can do a better job. Always ask to see what they did then. If they lost money you don't want them. Don't let them compare their performance to the S&P500. That's smoke and mirrors.

You can do better. Just do it.

By Al Thomas

Series 7 Exam

2008-06-30T01:07:00.019-07:00

What is the Series 7 Exam?

If you are looking to become a licensed Stockbroker, you need to know about the Series 7.

The Series 7 is a 250 question exam that when passed, licenses you to act as a Registered Representative. Persons who receive this license are allowed to sell most securities. These securities would include: Stock, Bonds, Options, Mutual Funds and Annuities. The license itself is active while you are practicing it. Practicing with a Series 7 means that you are either employed or affiliated with a member firm. If you leave the business, your license will still remain active for 2 years after your last day with the firm. If you do not re-enter the business within 2 years, your license will expire. You would then have to re-take the exam again.

The Series 7 exam itself is comprised of many topics although not equally divided. Approximately 50 questions will be on Municipal Bonds alone. Other major topics include Options, Industry Rules and Customer Account handling.

The SERIES 7 is a multiple choice test graded on 250 questions administered on computer by an NASD testing vendor (Prometric Technology Center). 70% is needed to pass the SERIES 7 Exam. You will be given 6 hours to complete the exam in two 3 hour parts. Each question is worth .4 of a point. 175 questions correct will equal a passing grade. The score is not curved or rounded up so yes, if you get 174 questions right, you will get a 69.6% and you will fail. Each part also includes 5 experimental questions, which do not count on your total score. You will not know which ones are the experimental questions. Each exam is different, meaning if you take your test next to someone else, your test will not be the same. The percentages will be the same but the questions that each individual is tested on will be random. This applies to all Licensing exams but the difference between tests is less with smaller content exams like the Series 63.

You will be given a calculator to use at the center. Applicants are not permitted to bring their own. Scrap paper will be given to you as well for you to use during the test. Once the test officially starts you can write down anything you want (Formulas, Rules etc.). The computer also offers the student the ability to change their answers at the end of the first or second part of the test. Meaning, if you wish to change an answer to a question in the first half, you will have to wait until the end of the first half to do it. Once the second half starts, you will be unable to view your first half. Basically, you are taking 2 different 125 question exams. Even if you are unsure what the correct answer to a question is, you must enter something before the next question is shown.

Don't Cheat: Today, the testing centers require fingerprint verification when you take your test. A student was caught a few years ago on camera cheating in the testing room. This person had a tiny video camera device on his tie and a listening transmitter in his ear. He was actually filming his screen while someone else at another location was feeding him the answers. I didn't believe this one at first but several people told it to me. Pretty amazing. Needless to say, he was nabbed and busted. Just study and you will pass....and maybe learn something too!

Good Luck!

By Nick Hunter

Why Technical Indicators

2008-06-30T01:07:00.017-07:00

The fight continues to rage among traders who use technical indicators and those who prefer fundamental information to establish new positions and to exit current positions.

The fundamentalist believe in knowing all the facts about a company such as price earnings ratios, sales growth, product margins, management capabilities, cost of production, cash flow, etc., etc. while the technicians could care less about the latter and want to see sector price trends and rank, the Relative Strength Index, MACD (moving average convergence divergence), stochastics, trend lines, chart patterns and many more esoterically evolved indicators.

Which method is the best?

There is no Holy Grail of trading and what critics of either method forget that it is the trader who adds the final nuance that results in profit or loss. The more years a professional investor has been working his plan the more successful he usually becomes. The unsuccessful ones have long since gone broke and are no longer in the game.

It is somewhat difficult for me to give great credence to fundamentalists as I am a technician and have a very long profitable track record to prove it; however, I do sometimes look at some of fundamentals. It seems that the longer term trader can do well with a fundamental approach because the timing to buy or sell has a lag time. He does not buy the bottom nor sell the top, but who does?

The technical trader will ignore the informational approach with the use of charts and other indicators. Short term traders must be technicians, especially day traders, as there are no fundamentals upon which they can assess their buys and sells.

Technical trading is based on the psychology of the mass of traders that ride upon the hidden values of the changing fundamentals. Charts and other indicators tell the of the long term health of a company, country or commodity as it is shown in the price action. The fundamentalist looks for the reason for a change to buy or sell whereas the technician tries to find the change in the price action to initiate buys and sells.

No matter what a fundamental trader's position he must be very patient. He may have a position on for years. During that same period there will be waves of highs and lows during which he remains constant in his position. The technician may trade the same equity several times buying the low of the wave and selling the high (hopefully). In commodities it is astute trading, but when it is done in stocks and funds it is called timing.

A combination of technical and fundamental methods can give the best results. For the average guy occasional trader I can only caution him to be very careful. Very few intermittent traders ever make money.

A successful trading approach requires commitment. It is a business the same as owning a shoe store or trucking company. You must give it your all.

Like any business you have to work at it.

By Al Thomas

Different Ways of Buying Stocks

2008-06-30T01:07:00.015-07:00

Let's say you are interested in this one company. You read its annual report, like what you see and your calculation indicates that the stock is trading way below its fair value. You are excited. It is time to buy! Hang on for a second. There are several techniques of buying stocks out there. Some are better than the other. Let me explore several useful ones.

Buy all at limit price. Assume that we have done our research and we want to invest $ 2000 to buy stock XYZ at $ 12/share. We can do this by setting a limit order of $ 12/share to buy 166 shares of XYZ. The advantage for this method is that we will not pay more than $ 12 for our XYZ share. If you use market order, instead of limit order, XYZ might run up to $ 13/share and execute your order at $ 12.50. Fifty cents may not sound a lot, but in this case, you just saves $ 83 for using limit order. Any better methods? Check out this next one.

Buying half at $12. Buying half when it drops. Stock market is volatile. It goes up and down due to various reasons. In this case, we set a limit order to buy $ 1000 worth of XYZ at $ 12/share. When XYZ drops lower, and if you think that the reason that you initially bought it is still valid, then you can buy more XYZ at a lower price. If XYZ drops by $ 1, you already save $ 83 off the bag. What else is there?

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). With DCA, investors normally buy a specified dollar of stock at regular intervals. In this case, you can decide to invest $ 500 monthly in XYZ stock. If the XYZ stock falls, you can buy more shares next month. If XYZ stock rises, you would buy less. But it is ok. You already made money on XYZ stocks that you bought at a lower price.

Which method is the best? There is no clear cut answer on this. Personally, I will never use market order when buying a stock. Commission for buying a limit order is not as expensive as it used to be. My favorite methods is by buying half position initially and then add half more when the share price drops. If you have done your research and you feel that $ 12 per share is a good buy, then why won't you buy some more if it goes down to $ 10? Just make sure that the fundamental remains the same when the stock drops.

While knowing how to initiate your position is important, I am more inclined in focusing on how to calculate fair value of a stock. This is where the bulk of your investment return comes from.

Jack and Jill

2008-06-30T01:07:00.013-07:00

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a bucket of ?money. Money? They are continuing to fill their bucket with stocks without any consideration to the value of these equities. They are not worried at all as they are buying "safe" mutual funds.

Everyone knows mutual funds are safe. Jack and Jill know they don't know how to pick good stocks so they leave that to the fund manager. He is an expert.

When you look at the long term record of 99% of the mutual funds you will see that expertise has been sadly lacking. I hate to remind you of the 2000 to 2003 period, but I must. In fact I must tell you it is going to happen again. Now you want to know when?.and so do I.

And that is the problem with almost every fund manager. As long as the market is going up they can't do much damage to your account, but when it rolls over and heads down they have no idea how to invest when a bear market is in progress. Not a single one of them will acknowledge that cash is a position.

Cash is a position? They are in shock. Of course they are. If brokerage customers put their money in a money market account while the market is falling it means they do not make any commission at all and if they recommend this to their customers the brokerage manager will fire them because he won't make any money either. "Keep your customers fully invested or I'll show you the door" is the manager's comment.

You must learn when to sell. Any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows when to sell. To see the condition of the overall market one of the best indicators is the SP500 Index. Your broker compares everything he does with the SP500 because it is a broad base of 500 stocks that are widely traded.

The finest indicator is the SP500 Index. Draw a 40-week chart of the closing prices. If you don't know how ask your broker. He will tell you. Write it down and save it. It is very simple. Have him set up a 40-week Simple Moving Average to appear on that chart. Look at 5 years worth of prices. Immediately you will see that if you are in the market while the 40-week MA is going up you are making money and if you are out of all your positions while the index average is going down you will not lose money. It doesn't get any easier that that.

Jack and Jill can fill their pail as the market is going up and need not spill their accumulation while they walk confidently down the hill holding their bucket full of cash not equities.

By Al Thomas

KISS Formula

2008-06-30T01:07:00.011-07:00

There are formulas for just about everything, but it has been shown that the simpler the formula or method of doing a particular task the better it works. It has evolved down to KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid.

This also applies to trading in the stock market. There are literally hundreds of formulas, both technical and fundamental that are easily available to investors. Each trader has his own method he uses. Every professional trader on the floor of the stock exchange has his own variation on some major proven formula. The more skilled he becomes with it the more he feels it is the best one.

Sometimes it takes years for a trader to settle on one method or group of methods that he uses to signal buys and sells. It took me many years to find that technical group that worked for me when I was an exchange member.

For some it evolves into long term trading and for others it can be buying and selling in a matter of minutes. The time period is not important. The method is. Even as a floor trader on the commodity exchange I had only two criteria I watched before entering into any position.

All professional traders and investors are aware of the single most important fact and that is how much I am willing to lose before I exit this new position. Every KISS formula has an exit strategy. Every professional knows in advance how much he will allow himself to lose if he is wrong. The professional does not set a limit on the winning side of a trade only on the losing side.

Ask any full time professional and he will tell you if he is right 50% of the time he considers that to be phenomenal. When I was on the floor I was only right about 40% of the time, even about 20% and wrong about 40%. BUT I made $3.00 for every dollar I lost. Small losses and big winners are the key to success. This is the key to any profitable formula - keeping the losses small.

When I see advertisements in the financial papers for methods claiming to be right 80%, 90% of the time I cringe. It just can't be. There is no trader I ever met who was that good and I have known some exceptional traders.

The major text on technical analysis is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee now in the 17th printing of the Fifth Edition that lists multitudes of methods. They all work, but many are complicated. A magazine called Futures Truth analyses 200 commodity trading systems in each issue. Fundamental Theory is equally complex.

There are software programs that allow the investors to enter as many as 30 parameters. The more complex it is the less chance it has to work. And the biggest obstacle to any program is the trader himself. He cannot hesitate when a buy or sell signal is given.

Keep your formula simple and execute the signals. You can be a winner.

By Al Thomas

How to Short Stocks? How to Make Money when Your Stocks Go Down by Shorting

2008-06-30T01:07:00.009-07:00

The stock market can present you with a lot of hot stocks every day. Many of them are new technology stocks that come from the nanotech, biotech, voip, healthcare, homeland defense or internet sectors.

Most of them may seem promising, but the truth is that a good number of these trading & investing opportunities are extremely risky, while others are not as good as they seem. That's why it's very important to know how to choose the best especially if you want to day trade them.

When you know how to pick and approach the best hot stock trading opportuntites, you are able to generate a consistent and respectable amount of money in a very short period of time.

You don't necessarily have to trade momentum hot stocks all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter the best opportunities for going long or for shorting them to make money when they are poised to fall down.

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Mutual Fund Commissions

2008-06-30T01:07:00.007-07:00

You have heard about a particular mutual fund from a friend, saw it advertised on TV or read about it in some publication thought it would be a good buy. Next you call your broker to get his advice before you buy because he is an expert and is there to help you make money.

"Hello, Billy Sol (see Billy Sol Estes on Google), this is Joe Mushroom and I want to buy some XYZ mutual fund. What do you think?"

"Joe, I was just thinking about you and was going to call you, but first let me look up XYZ for you. Uh oh! Joe it has a high expense ratio of about 1 ½ per cent. I would not recommend that for you."

Billy Sol fails to mention that XYZ has no load (that's commission) so he would not make any money if you bought it. There are thousands of excellent no-load funds that outperform the load funds. Billy Sol says the fund his brokerage company recommends is ABC and again fails to mention it has a 5% load (commission) and goes on to paint a beautiful picture of ABC and how well it has done in the past 5 and 10 year period. Furthermore the expense ratio is only one per cent which is savings of 33%.

WOW! Joe thinks that sounds pretty good so he lets Bill Sol buy ABC instead of XYZ. Let's see what really happened.

Joe saves ½ percent per year on the expense ratio, but pays and extra 5% up front. Maybe I'm wrong, but if you divide ½% in 5% that goes 10 time. In other words it is going to take Joe Mushroom 10 years to makeup that 5% commission charge not counting what that 5% charge would have made if it had been working in Joe's account for that 10 year period.

What it boils down to is never pay commission for any mutual fund. If the broker will not sell you a no-load fund then get another broker. He is not trying to help you make money. He is trying to make money for himself and his company and may tell you his company does not carry a particular fund because they don't think it is a good. Hog wash. Another broker lie. It is your money and you are entitled to buy any fund. Go to a discount broker who handles that fund and open an account. It will save you a bundle over the years and they are as safe an any big-name broker.

Advice from a financial planner is no better if he is making commissions. The smart method is to have a fee based broker who has a winning track record. Have any financial planner show you his model account. He should have one or maybe several model portfolios. Unless they make money every year he is not a successful money advisor. Don't let them hoodwink you about their performance "is better than the S&P500". That's nonsense. You want to see a cash increase every year.

The first and basic rule is never pay commissions for any mutual fund.

By Al Thomas

Small-Cap Stocks: The Beginning of the Journey

2008-06-30T01:07:00.005-07:00

When an individual investor wants to roll up his sleeves and do some research in the pursuit of the next big winner in the stock market, the place many start is in the small cap sector.

As with the other capitulation sizes (capitalization is a stock's market value), no one can completely agree on a precise definition, but corporations under $2 billion are often considered small caps. It should be pointed out that there are two asset classes below small caps. Micro caps are companies between $50- 300 million and Nano caps are below $50 million. To further confuse the issue, there are also "penny stocks" that really have nothing to do with capitalization size, but are stocks that trade very cheaply.

Life begins for many small caps as an Initial Public Offering (IPO) or as a "spin off" from a larger company. Like Toddlers, these companies are often still in their developmental stage. At this point they exhibit characteristics that give them the potential for both massive growth and extreme downside volatility.

Their huge growth potential is obviously the piece that attracts most investors. Who wouldn't have wanted to get in on a Microsoft in its early days of trading? The question of course is who knew about Microsoft back then?

Often, it is individuals not institutions that first get in on the ground floor. Analysts working for major brokerage firms usually don't have the time to develop coverage on small companies and institutional investors generally have limitations of how much they can own of a single company. Although a $100 million may seem a lot to an individual, it's a drop in the bucket for the big players and equals 20% of a $500 million company. The 20% far exceeds what the SEC stipulates a mutual fund can own and often exceeds the investment policy statement of an institutional investor.

The disadvantage here to the investor is there is relatively little published research that the individual can rely on in the decision making process. But the good news is that the individual investor has the opportunity to buy the stock before the institutions get in and run the price up.

Many investors believe in the "efficiency" of the market. This means that with all the information out on a particular stock, the market can "efficiently price" any stock. In the case of small caps (where information is often lacking), an argument can be made that there is some potential to profit from inefficiencies in the market. Again, this cuts two ways. Many investors can remember that it wasn't too long ago that many small cap techs sold for vastly inflated prices only to watch a steep price slide as the market started to correct these inefficiencies.

Income investors should probably look elsewhere. Small caps generally conserve whatever cash they earn for growth potential. Any yield is usually incidental to their objective.

For mutual fund investors, small caps can be an interesting proposition. Certainly, mutual funds can help offset some volatility through diversification. However, for investors that want to follow a small cap's ascension to the large cap sector, mutual funds may disappoint. Often, to avoid what's called "style drift" a mutual fund manager sells a successful position simply because it has outgrown its capitalization value. While this may be helpful for asset allocation purposes, it's not appealing for investors wanting to watch a company "grow up".

By Glenn ("Chip") Dahlke

The Exclusive Club of Large Caps

2008-06-30T01:07:00.003-07:00

Picture one of those clubs where only the real heavyweights need apply. In the library the old aristocrats, General Motors and JP Morgan, are dozing in their leather chairs. On the terrace, a late luncheon is underway for those who have only improved their standing through marriage. ExxonMobil and Citigroup are part of the party. At the bar, a number of the"nouveau riche" have gathered - Microsoft seems to be buying for Intel and Hewlett Packard. Welcome to the world of the Large Cap Stock Club, the biggest of the worlds publicly traded companies.

For those interested in applying, membership includes a minimum market capitalization of at least $1 billion and can go upwards to $10 billion depending on whom you talk to. Included in the resumes are often affiliations with other well known groups. 30 are currently with the Dow Jones Industrial Index and many more with the Standard and Poor's 500. Both these groups are widely followed indicators of the health of the stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) traces its lineage back to 1928 when companies like Victor Talking Machine (later merged into RCA Corp.), Nash Motors (later merged into American Motors) and F.W. Woolworth Company kept company with General Electric and General Motors, the only two remaining original members. Today, household names like McDonalds, Home Depot, Disney and Wal-Mart have replaced some of their earlier brethren. Calculating the average is done by adding the prices of the 30 stocks and dividing by an adjusted denominator.

Because the Standard and Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) has 500 companies in the index, many believe this to be a more accurate indicator than the DJIA. Also unlike the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500 is a weighted index - meaning each stock's weight is determined by its market value.

Unofficially, some Large Cap companies are known as "blue chips". This term originally came from poker chips where the blue chips were the most expensive. Today, this generally denotes high quality, usually being reserved for large companies with stable earnings and a history of dividend growth.

Investors in mutual funds are apparently big fans of Large Cap stocks. Of the 10 largest mutual funds, seven are invested primarily in US Stock and all of these (Growth Fund of America, Investment Company of America, American Funds, Washington Mutual, Dodge & Cox Stock, Fidelity Contrafund, Fidelity Magellan, and Vanguard Index 500) are Large Cap funds.

One might think that, with all these pedigrees, the world of large caps might be scandal free, but with the recent lessons learned from Enron and WorldCom, we know that even the mightiest can fall from their lofty perches. Once again, we are reminded that when it comes to investing, there simply are no guarantees.

Looking at returns (using the annual returns of the S&P 500 from 1926 - 2004, including reinvestment of dividends ) we find that the best year for Large Caps was 1933 with a return of +53.99%. On the other hand, two years prior to that, in 1931, the return was a dismal -43.34%. Of the 78 years between 1926 - 2004, the S&P 500 posted positive returns for 56 of those years. To put it another way, therehave been more than twice as many up years as there were down years. Naturally, this is all past track record. The future holds no guarantees that this will continue.

Turning again to Large Cap mutual funds, it is important to note that most are "managed" funds, rather than "unmanaged" funds like the S&P 500 Index. This simply means that most mutual funds have managers who pick certain stocks out of the large cap universe rather than follow an index of the entire universe. This not only creates return differences between the funds and the indexes, but also creates differences between the funds as well.

It may also be a good idea to check the dividend history of funds. While some funds specifically buy stocks with higher dividends, other funds could care less what dividends are paid. Normally, stock based mutual funds will pay dividends once a year (usually in December), but sometimes pay more frequently. Whatever the case, the amount of dividends can be important depending on the need for income.

Obviously, large companies shouldn't be the only asset class considered for a well rounded portfolio. Mid-size companies and small-size companies are important to achieve proper asset allocation. However, for investing in well known companies that are truly the "movers and shakers," nothing beats the Large Cap Stocks.

Home James!

By Glenn ("Chip") Dahlke

Oil Stocks As A Long Term Investment

2008-06-30T01:07:00.001-07:00

The demand for world oil is increasing while world reserves are decreasing. This is a known fact. The current price of oil can certainly confirm this statement. Consensus also agrees that we will never see $25.00 oil again. The logical conclusion to our above statement is oil stocks should be a good long term investment. However, the location of the oil companies' reserves can affect their bottom line and valuation.

Some of the largest reserves in the world are found in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada. Political unrest in Venezuela, unstable and unpredictable government in Russia and Osama Bin Laden targeting Saudi Arabia leave Canada, namely the Alberta Oil Sands, as the largest, most reliable oil reserves in the world.

Companies like Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. are planning to spend billions during the next 10 years to develop Alberta's unusual oil deposits as demand for crude rises and output from existing reserves decline. Oil sands output in Alberta may double to 2 million barrels a day by 2013, according to a presentation by Enbridge Inc. earlier this month. Oil sands are deposits of bitumen - heavy oil that must be treated to convert it into crude oil for use in refineries to produce gasoline and diesel fuels. The U.S. Energy Department revised its global oil resource estimates to include the oil sands 174 billion barrels of proven reserves that can be recovered using current technology.

With demand for oil and other commodities from China and India increasing due to their growing economies, strong trading relationships are procuring with Canada - a country with numerous resources, political stability and neutral military views.

Companies with reserves in the Alberta oil sands look like a great investment for the next decade There are many companies with reserves in the Oil Sands here are some with strong exposure.

Suncor Energy Inc. SU.tse , Western Oil Sands Inc. WTO.tse and the Canadian Oil Sands Trust COS/UN.tse

Parachute Investing

2008-06-30T01:05:00.015-07:00

Ever jumped out of an airplane? It's OK if you have on a parachute. Pretty dumb if you don't.

Every buy any stocks, mutual funds or Exchange Traded Funds? It's OK if you know how much you are willing to risk. Pretty dumb if you don't.

Parachute investing is buying an equity with a parachute so you won't risk all your money or, better yet, give back the profit you have made as the stock or fund went up and then goes down. If you bought that hummer at $12 per share and during the past couple of years seen it go up to $52 you don't want to give back that nice profit, do you? With a parachute you can save most of it. How?

When you invest in any stock of fund you must know how much you will risk before you buy it and how much of the profit you are willing to give back when it turns down. Take that beauty at $12. Instead of going up it went down. Are you willing to agonize as it drops to $5? If you had a parachute you would have jumped out of the plane before it crashed. If you had an exit strategy for your stock you would have sold it before you lost a big chunk of your cash.

The secret of a safe investment is an exit strategy. When you bought Mr. Twelve Dollars you shook hands and told him I'd like to be your friend, but if you change your name to Ten Dollars I am leaving. Maybe that that is not very nice, but nice doesn't cut it in the investment world.

Mr. Twelve Dollars said I am going up and I want you for my friend. Please follow me and if I falter you can leave and we will part friends. Now that makes sense. You trail along and after it goes to $52 it does falter. Do you know where you are going to leave or are you going to ride it go back down to $12? In other words do you have your parachute on?

That parachute is your continuing exit strategy that is in place every day. In the investment community it is called an open trailing stop loss order. Any broker can put this in place for you. You might be lucky enough to have a broker who knows where to place stops, but unfortunately there are not many of them.

The brokerage industry does not teach its employees (brokers) how to protect customers' money. If that is the case you might want to use the old standard 10% rule. Have the broker place an open stop every Friday at 10% of the closing price of that day as it closes higher. Never lower the stop loss. Brokers hate this as it makes them work, but that is what they are there for and that is how they earn their commissions.

With your parachute you can always protect your original cash purchase from a big loss and as your stock advances you can lock in profit as the stock advances.

Every investment should have a parachute.

By Al Thomas

Is Active Trading The Answer?

2008-06-30T01:05:00.013-07:00

One of the main reasons many of us get into investing is to become financially independent. Who isn't trying to amass a portfolio with enough income to ensure that we don't have to work when we should be playing golf or traveling the world. While there are several strategies to invest, is active trading one of the ways to become a millionaire?

For those investors who want to achieve that million dollar portfolio, you may want to read The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko. While it wont help you identify great stock picks (but investorandtrader.com can help), it will help you to establish the difference between those who dream of having a million dollar net worth, and those who do it. You may be surprised at the answers.

While I won't give away all the secrets, I will share one of the surprising findings which impact investors over the long term.

95% owned stocks

9% of investors held for less than 1 year

1% held for a few days

1% held for a few weeks

7% held for a few months

Less than 10%, less than 1 in 10 people with net worth of $1 millionaire or more actively trade their portfolios. Most definitions of active traders would mean that 1 in 100 are active traders. 99% of millionaires do not actively trade their positions. They hold for long periods of time. They find good companies and let the companies make them money.

The biggest problem with active trading is the commission, and the taxes. Your brokerage gets paid whether you make money or not. Making the presumption that you're trading with a discount broker, you're paying $20 ($10 to buy, $10 to sell) each time you trade. If you do make money, you're paying taxes on that gain. At the end of the year, you get to keep a portion. Make 2 trades per week, and you will spend over $2000 a year in commission. If you lost money, add $2000 to your losses. If you made money, subtract tax, and then subtract $2000 more.

It takes a lot of successful trades to make money. While it can happen, sometimes, just finding a good quality stock and sticking to them, might just be your key to a million dollar portfolio.

That's just one guys opinion.

Living Trust Investing: Income Considerations when the Grantor Dies

2008-06-30T01:05:00.011-07:00

A common problem I often see when working with living trust beneficiaries and trustees is the lack of attention in rethinking income strategies in the event of the grantor's death.

When the grantor of a living trust dies, the trustee (especially a family member or close friend) sometimes feels reluctant to revise the portfolio, feeling it's an affront to the wishes of the deceased. After all, if the investments were sound during life, they should be sound enough upon his or her death.

While the fundamental values of the investments are certainly the same, a number of circumstances have changed and must be dealt with.

The most crucial change is because of the trust itself. There are sections within the trust instrument that deal with income distributions, both during the grantor's lifetime and after his or her death. The trustee should become familiar with these sections and how their differences will have an impact upon investment decisions.

Secondly, with the passing of the grantor, new assets (such as life insurance death benefits) are often added to the trust assets and these new assets must be invested in a way that complies with the grantor's wishes.

Thirdly, assets held outside the trust often need to be considered. For example, the grantor may have held qualified retirement plan benefits that are passed directly to a trust beneficiary. Utilization of these retirement benefits may need to be recognized and, in some instances, may even be discussed in the trust instrument.

Lastly, the trust beneficiaries may have assets of their own and these asets should be brought into the mix of things.

When revising an investment strategy, the needs of the income beneficiaries are a good place to start. First, determine available cash flow from sources outside the trust. Typically, this could include Social Security benefits, immediate annuities, deferred compensation, qualified retirement plans and, of course, the beneficary's own assets.

Next, fund whatever income deficit is left by assuming a modest rate of yield in the trust. Hopefully, this modest amount will satisfy the needs of the income beneficiaries. If not, you can raise the yield somewhat, but not too much. At some point, you'll reach beyond what yield can be readily achieved with an acceptable risk level, to speak nothing of breaching the trustee's responsibility to act in a prudent fashion.

Because the trustee has a responsibility to all beneficiaries, including those who may ultimately inherit the trust, it may be necessary to balance the income needs of the income beneficiaries and the growth needs of the ultimate beneficiaries. This fidicuary role is paramount to the decisions made by the trustee.

It is also important to note the difference between "yield" and "total return," as applied to a trust. Total return includes capital gains, but those gains are often excluded from the definition of "distributable income" in a trust. Distributions that exceed income will be construed as principal and are often left to a trustee's discretion. A trustee can say "no" as easily as "yes" to principal distributions.

If principal distributions are left to the trustee's discretion, it's a good guess that the intent was not to punish the beneficiary, but to keep the trust out of the beneficiary's taxable estate.

Carrying this one step farther, many financial advisers will argue that, if a beneficiary's own estate is large enough to be exposed to estate taxes, then the beneficiary might be wise to "spend down" his or her own estate and let the trust grow in value.

The inverse is also true. If a beneficiary has a small estate, then he or she may want income from the trust, but he or she may also want the principal to grow in his or her own name so as to get a stepped-up tax basis upon death.

These strategies are very common if the ultimate beneficiaries are the same people.

The role of the trustee can be difficult, but paying attention to the changes in income needs will avoid future problems and inefficiencies in carrying out the duties of administering the trust.

By Glenn ("Chip") Dahlke

Dividend Reinvestment Plans: Investing on Automatic Pilot

2008-06-30T01:05:00.009-07:00

If you're like many investors who squander those small dividend checks from your stock portfolio, a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) might be just what you need. Just as its name implies, a Dividend Reinvestment Plan allows you to reinvest some or all of those dividends into more stock of the issuing company. Unlike purchases made through traditional means, partial or fractional shares, as well as whole shares, are available.

Technically, there are two types of DRPs. The first type involves buying shares at the market through an outside trustee. Although the company may subsidize the transaction costs, buying shares at a discount is not allowed.

The second type allows you to purchase directly from the issuing company, which may provide a discount from the market price. This is a distinct advantage over buying from an outside trustee.

Besides giving dividends a better purpose than sitting in your pocket or in a brokerage cash account, a DRP may offer other advantages as well. By buying on a regular basis, you are "dollar cost averaging" your purchases, an investment strategy designed to reduce volatility. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in the price. Of course you should consider your ability to continue purchasing through periods of low price levels. This type of plan does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

Secondly, many companies offer added options with their DRPs, including purchasing stock at low minimums and sometimes even offering shares at a discount (often 3-5%) off current market prices.

From a tax standpoint, you are subject to income taxes on the value of the dividends whether you reinvest them or not. Your tax basis for all your shares including the reinvested dividends is the amount paid for the original shares plus the dividends, minus any costs deducted from your dividends as a service charge as part of the DRP.

Keeping good records is a necessity, especially if you plan to continue participating in a DRP over a number of years. Without the records, it may become very difficult to track all your purchases. A little bit of effort now can save you big headaches later on.

Usually, you will receive a quarterly statement outlining your DRP account. Among other things, these quarterly statements will detail your on-going investments, how many shares are held by the program, how many shares are held be you, and the value of all your shares.

Not all companies offer DRP's but, for a list of one's that do, there are many web sites dedicated to these plans. These internet sites not only have a full list of companies with DRPs, they also offers online enrollment services. For securities held in a brokerage or wrap account, check with your brokerage firm to determine if they have the means to enroll you. If all else fails, try either the company itself or its transfer agent.

Although it is easy to see the advantages of DRP programs to the investor, we should not overlook the benefits to the issuing company. Besides helping to stabilize market prices, a DRP is a relatively efficient way to raise capital and, because companies only "promise" to continue these programs in the future, the issuing company controls when and how much capital will be raised.

Over 1,000 companies currently offer some type of Dividend Reinvestment Plan and, with a little research, you should be able to get on the path of "automatic pilot" investing for the future.

By Glenn ("Chip") Dahlke

The Importance of Using Stop Loss Orders When Spread Trading the Financial Markets

2008-06-30T01:05:00.007-07:00

A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders

Stop losses are market orders designed to allow you to limit your losses.

When you place a stop loss you are instructing the spread betting company or stock broker to cut your position when it reaches a certain loss level (or in some cases, profit level - more later).

Therefore, a stop loss will automatically close your trade if the market reaches a certain point.

For example: You have bought £1 a point of the German DAX at 4200. The most you are willing to risk is £150 on this trade so you place your stop at 4050. If the market trades at 4050 you are taken out immediately and you lose £150.

Normal Stop Losses

These are free but with this type of stop you can sometimes lose more than you specified when you placed the order.

Sometimes your stop loss order may not be filled at the level you wanted i.e. you may be taken out at 4046 instead of 4050.

The bookmaker will attempt to get you out of the trade at the price you specify but when the market is moving very quickly it may not be possible.

This is called "slippage" and tends to happen in a fast moving market.

You can also lose more than you wished if the market you are trading "gaps".

For example: You have opened a long trade on the Dow Jones for £1 a point at 10000. As you were willing to risk £200, you placed a stop at 9800. Over the next couple of days, the Dow moves down slightly to 9900 and at the end of trading on the third day it is sat at 9890.

The next day some very disappointing economic figures are released and the Dow opens well down at 9700. As this is past your stop loss, the bookmaker closes your bet at market price.

Your trade is closed at 9690, 110 points below your stop loss so your loss is now £310 rather than the £200 you were willing to lose.

Guaranteed Stop Losses

You can ensure you are closed out at the exact price you specify by using a Controlled Risk or Guaranteed stop loss order

These types of stops are designed as a type of insurance to guarantee that your stop loss order is filled at the exact price you specify.

Even if the market you are trading gaps 1000 points beyond your stop, if you are using a guaranteed stop loss you will still only lose what you have already decided is an acceptable loss.

You pay a little extra for a guaranteed stop. In the Dow example above, a guaranteed stop would cost roughly 4 times the stake (4 x £1 = £4). Usually the premium is taken from your account balance when setting the stop loss level or is added to the spread.

Although they do reduce your account balance, guaranteed stops can save you a great deal of money and are certainly recommended if you have a small capital base.

Some Pointers About Stop Losses

- Never move your stop if you think it may be hit. If you move the stop further down to try and avoid being taken out you will simply lose more money.

- You don't have to close your entire position with a stop loss order. If you wish, you can set up 2 or more stops. For a £1 per point trade you could set a stop 100 points away which reduces you exposure by 50p a point. Another could be placed 200 points away to take you completely out of the trade.

- It is better to let the stop take you out of the market and preserve the rest of your capital than to try and stay in the trade by moving the stop.

- You can lock in profits by using a stop loss. If you were to enter a long trade on the Dow at 10000 with a stop at 9900 and the Dow moves up to 10200 you could then move your stop to 10100 to lock in 100 points profit.

- Never trade without a stop loss, even if it is just a normal stop. To stay in the trading game you must preserve your capital and huge unexpected losses will certainly not help. See the Money Management section for more details.

By Ben Catt

A Stock Market Investment Plan that Never Lets You Down

2008-06-30T01:05:00.005-07:00

The bulls and bears of the stock market are both tempting and scary to the investors. Speculators are enchanted by the stock market's potential to help them in making quick money with a big M. While those who tread with care and caution, often shy away for fear of losing. However, the stock market is not all about speculative gains or black Tuesdays. It is a place where committed companies look for raising money to fund their activities. Serious investors can actually create wealth not only for themselves, but also for the companies and the nation. A wise way to invest in the stock market is to empower your self with information. You have to know and learn about the company you invest in, from past records and future plans.

Irrespective of what the Wall Street Gurus predict or what the economic indicators like Dow Jones Average say, a simple and foolproof way of knowing that a company is doing well is to keep a track of how much dividend income does it pay to its share holders every year. If the dividend rates have been rising steadily every year, you know you have a safe bet. To benefit from the future prospects of such companies, it is a good idea to rollback the returns into the company. Which means, instead of adding the dividends to your savings, you can invest them in the shares of the same company. That way, you can ensure that the dividends you receive are always higher than what you got last, with a larger number of shares getting added to your investment portfolio every time.

With this kind of an assured investment plan in place, investors with a gambling streak begin to think beyond making a quick gain. While those who were afraid to take risks get wiser.

Let us find out why companies that give ever-increasing cash dividend income are a good choice for investment:

Your Share Holding Goes Up And So does Your Dividend Income.

Your income begins to escalate with your owning more shares every year and the dividend income rising correspondingly.

Your Dividend Income Increases Even If Stock Prices don't.

You are no more at the mercy of the market. Irrespective of what your shares are worth, you keep earning additional cash dividends. In fact, even if the market price dips, you are still at an advantage, as that allows you to reinvest to purchase more shares.

You are not hit by Inflation.

With the dividend income rising every year, you offset the effects of a rising inflation. This particularly provides relief to people who have retired and depend on a regular cash inflow to help them meet their expenses. At this stage one need not rollback the investment into further shares, instead, the cash dividend can be used as a kind of regular pension money.

Start Young

The ingenuity behind this investment strategy is that it protects you from the fluctuations that generally occur in the market. A lower stock market rate only means you buy more to increase your dividends more. It is advisable to start this strategy early in life while you are still working, so that your wealth builds up gradually and constantly over the years. And you are assured of a regular income, as you grow older.

Remember, the success of this proven investment plan depends significantly on the track record of the company you invest in. It should be one that declares a higher dividend at the end of each financial period. A simple way to find that out would be to calculate the dividend yield. You can do that by dividing the annual dividend per share by the price per share. Of course, no investment can be totally free of risks, neither is this one. Keep an eye on the dividend yield, and if that dips, it's a signal for you to opt out of the investment.

By James Marriott

Mid-Cap Stocks: Asset Class with an Identity Crisis

2008-06-30T01:05:00.003-07:00

Much like the middle child, mid-cap stocks have long struggled to find their identity. Carved out from the upper echelons of the small caps and the lower end of the large caps, the mid-cap sector has a rough definition of stock with a market capitalization of greater than $2 billion, but less than $10 billion. Taking components from both worlds, some analysts argue that mid-cap stocks can offer growth opportunities found in the small caps and the relative stability found in the large caps.

Within this rationale lies the argument for participation in mid-cap investing. Unlike the small caps that have not yet been seasoned by the market, nor like the large caps that have most of their growth behind them, there are those who claim that mid caps are in the "sweet spot" of the economy. You might say that they have survived the rigors of childhood and are now ready for their years of growth and maturity into adulthood.

Still other analysts point out that this area is ripe for merger and acquisition targets. With premiums often being paid on the acquired stock's value, an opportunity presents itself for the investor looking for a little "extra."

There are literally hundreds of mid-cap stocks and, while some languish in obscurity, a number have widely recognized names. Abercrombie & Fitch, Circuit City, AutoZone, Marriott International, and Newell Rubbermaid all fit this category. Because this range is often a stop over point for the large caps, it goes without saying that the real heavy weights of the investment world have also spend at least some time here.

A number of indexes track mid caps, with The Standard & Poors Mid Cap 400 and The Russell Midcap Index being two of the more popular. The S&P 400 Midcap is a weighted index like the S&P 500, except that it covers the mid-cap sector of the U.S. stock market. The Russell Midcap Index currently has a weighted average market cap of $7.5 billion and includes the smallest 800 stocks in the Russell 1000.

The Steele Mutual Fund Expert database contains about 1,200 funds within its mid-cap categories, although less than 220 have track records of 10 years or more and less than 50 have been around for at least 20 years. The vast majority of funds that adhere to the mid-cap style are actively managed funds. For investors who follow an index approach, they won't find as many choices compared to the large-cap index funds, but the number is growing.

Besides individual stocks and open-end mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFS) have also gotten into the act.

In recent years, mid-cap funds have started to receive substantial attention in the financial press. Using Steele Mutual Fund Expert as our source, they have come out from under the shadow of their bigger sibling, large cap funds, and turned in better returns. For the three years from1/1/ 2002 through 12/31/2004, the 162 funds in the mid-cap blend averaged 9.40% and beat the 853 funds in the large-cap blend, which averaged 2.91%. Importantly, the mid caps did this with only slightly greater standard deviation. The 228 funds in the small-cap blend averaged 11.65% and boasted the best track record for this period, but had greater volatility. While these results are not guaranteed in the future, they have helped the mid caps establish themselves as a formidable asset class.

So, for those looking for a palatable mix between large caps and small caps, the mid- cap sector deserves serious consideration.

By Glenn ("Chip") Dahlke

Selling Strategies - Setting a Stop Loss

2008-06-30T01:05:00.001-07:00

Sometimes the best way of lowering exposure to risk is not to invest at all! However, when we make the decision to jump into the muddy waters of the stock market, its always a good idea to have a life jacket ready, just in case.

We all have stories of that "must have" "can't lose" stock that looking back, we didn't really need to buy, and it definitely lost. So, how to best protect yourself when the markets disagree with your due diligence? Trailing stop loss.

Its important to understand the psychology of investing. When we make money, there is instant euphoria. When we start to lose money, there is a sudden "deer caught in the headlights" type of emotion, which makes us unable to do the right thing. We fear that the moment we sell, will be the moment that it starts to rebound. Not only do we fear that we will be that guy who sold at the low of the day, but that we will miss out on untold fortunes because we got out too early.

While this happens, more often than not, a small loss turns into a much bigger loss. Remember, a 40% loss started off as a 5% loss.

So what is the best stop loss strategy? Well, we happen to have 2. One simple, one a little more complicated, but possibly more effective and capital saving.

The first strategy is called a "trailing stop loss". Its simple and effective. We're going to add a small twist to it. A traditional trailing stop loss simply means that you set a percentage that you are willing to lose. For example, if you purchase 1000 shares of ABC at $5/share, you could set a stop loss at 10%. This means that if the stock dips below 10% of your purchase price ($5 - 10% = $4.50), you're out of the market and no longer risking capital. If the share price moves higher, you would set your stop loss at 10% below the closing price. If ABC moves to $5.50, you would set your stop loss at $4.95. If the stock drops below that price, you're out.

By setting your stop loss at the time of your purchase, you are taking the emotion out of investing. Specifically, you are taking out the "deer caught in the headlights" emotion. This will save you grief and will save you money. If your stock moves like you think it will, you can lock in your gains automatically.

Our twist to this strategy though, is to first establish the dollar amount that initial stop loss is worth, and let that dictate what your stop loss will be.

Given the same example as above, your initial stop loss would be $4.50. You would only be risking $0.50 per share or $500. This represents the most you are willing to lose, regardless of which way the investment goes.

If the share price moves to $7.00, instead of setting your stop loss at $6.30, (thus risking $0.70 or $700 of your money), you would set your stop loss at $6.50, which risks the same $500 you were initially willing to lose when you first started.

This little twist helps you keep more of your profitable investments. Why put more profits at risk?

The second stop loss strategy is, although a little more complicated, will protect more of your money.

While we would love to take credit for this strategy, we found it when reading Chart Trading by Darryl Guppy. This strategy starts by looking at your overall capital, not the amount of the specific investment. For example, if you had $20 000 in your investment account, you could trade 51 times if each time you invested you put 2% of your total capital at risk.

While 2% doesn't sound like a lot, lets have a look at an example. Given your investment account has $20 000 in it and you only want to put 2% of it at risk, you would be willing to risk $400 per trade. This ensures that you will have 51 chances to get it right before you run out of money.

Where you set your stop loss is basically the point where you are risking $400. Given our initial example, your stop loss would be at $4.60. If the price moves from $5 to below $4.60, you have lost $400. What if you purchased 2000 shares at the same $5? Your stop loss would be then set to $4.80. Anything below that, and you have risked more than $400. If you think that you want a deeper stop loss, then you would purchase fewer shares. The idea is simple: you never risk more than the same amount per trade.

As the price increases, you then change the amount of your stop loss accordingly. If the stock hits $7, you would set your stop loss at $6.60.

Given our initial stop loss strategy, assuming you lost $500 each trade, you could lose approximately 40 times before you ran out of money. However, what if you purchased 2000 shares at $5 each? Your 10% stop loss would put $1000 at risk. This will lower the number of chances you have at getting it right.

Its up to you how much money you are preparing to risk. Many investors think of the ways they are going to spend their profits before they are made. Its much better to think about the amount you are prepared to lose. This way, when your hard work pays off, you'll appreciate it more. On the other hand, if the market disagrees with you, you can still keep the majority of your money!

Dividend Paying Stocks

2008-06-13T22:41:00.001-07:00

I would like to share with the reader an article printed in the financial section of U.S.A. Today on March 7, 2003 which exemplifies the awesome power of a stock dividend.

MICROSOFT TO ISSUE FIRST DIVIDEND TODAY:

Microsoft investors will get their first payday today, when the tech giant shells out its first dividend. At 8 cents a share, the dividend will cost the company $850 million. Co-founder Bill Gates, who owns about 1.2 billion shares will receive a dividend of $96.5 million. The dividend marks a shift for Microsoft, which had long hoarded cash - to the tune of $43.4 billion - for research, acquisitions and legal claims.

After reading this article I couldn't help thinking about a report, which I believe stated that there were an estimated 33 million people in America living under the official poverty level. Bill Gates, by giving away his Microsoft dividend to those living under the poverty level could begin to create 96 millionaires, year after year after year. What a boost to the economy that would be! Imagine all those new millionaires every year spending money on something other than food, Salvation Army clothing and shelter.

Bill Gates (by giving away his Microsoft dividend) could begin to eliminate all the hardships for those people currently living under the poverty level.

Of course, I would probably start feeling sorry for all those people who were living right at the poverty level. I could almost hear Ma telling Pa now, "If we only didn't sell those $40.00 worth of aluminum cans, we could have been millionaires right now." Then again, those newly created millionaires would probably begin buying computers filled with Microsoft software and Bill Gates would start getting his money back. And, if that wasn't enough, the newly created millionaires probably hadn't read my book! They would probably start using their computers to start day trading in the stock market and end up right back where they started. Holy moly! I better finish this book or they won't stand a chance!

(Note: Bill Gates and family have already given millions and millions to charity. It was announced on CNBC that on April 24, 2003 Bill Gates had just donated 28 million dollars to S. Africa's AIDS program.)

As an individual investor in the stock market for almost 40 years I have found that companies that raise their dividend every year outperform those companies that stop or trim their dividends. For example, Dominion Resources had raised their dividend from 1984 to 1994 every year, and then stopped in 1994. Since then the company continues to pay a 64½ cent a share dividend, with a dividend yield of around 4 percent a year. The stocks performance since 1994 has been mediocre, rising in price from the 40 dollar range in 1994 to the 60 dollar range in 2004.

Now compare that stock's performance with Comerica, a company that has raised their dividend for the past 35 consecutive years. In April of 2003, Comerica's stock price was around 37 dollars a share, paying a dividend yield of around 5%. Today, July 20, 2004 the stock closed at $58.28 a share, paying a dividend yield of 3.57%. A $21.00 a share move in the stock in 1 year and 3 months and in March of 2005 the company will probably raise their dividend again for the 36th consecutive year. (By the way, Comerica's stock performance for the past 14½ years (just by having the dividends rolled back into the stock) has returned a little better than 15% a year, compounded annually.)

The simple point I'm trying to make is to invest in those companies that have a history of raising their dividend every year. There are hundreds of them. A company that just pays a dividend is not good enough; find those companies with a historical record of raising their dividend every year.

--

You have permission to this article either electronically or in print as long as the author bylines are included with a live link, and the article is not changed in any way (typos excluded.) Please provide a courtesy e-mail to charles@thestockopolyplan.com telling where the article was published. (646 word count)

By Charles M. O'Melia

Oil Stocks CHK WLL - What Is Their Worth?

2008-06-13T22:40:00.017-07:00

(1) CHK stock price $16.74, NAV $32.5

CHK is my favorite oil or natural gas stock. Here is updated Net Asset Value (NAV) table from CHK July 2004 earning release:

Table CHK PV-10 per share NAV vs Natural gas price

N Gas price NAV per share
$4.50 $16.11
$5.00 $19.60
$5.50 $23.11
$6.00 $26.61
$6.50 $32.5

PE = 10 or 10% of earning yield is considered reasonable valuation for non-growing business. PV-10 Net Asset Value (NAV) is standard calculation for value of oil or natural gas reserve assuming current production cost and expenses. When N gas price = $4.5, CHK will make $1.611 per share per year true profit with current production/exploration expenses. CHK is worth $16.11 at $4.5 gas price in this case. We can imagine that as if CHK is a bank deposit account, the interest rate is 10%, if we deposit $16.11 principle there, each year we get 10% interest returns or $1.611 interest per year.

For the 1st half of 2004, natural gas price was between $5 and $7 averaging at $6.0. Natural gas price was as high as $9 in later half of 2004. CHK stock price is still below $17 recently and its reported quarterly net income severely under-estimated its true profitability.

* Margin of Safety - CHK

Wall Street analysts have been predicting significantly lower N. gas price or oil price in 2-3 years ahead. Therefore, CHK or the whole oil and gas stocks are trading as if N. gas price between $4 - $5 range or oil price between $20 - $30 range.

First of all, I disagree that oil or natural gas will go down much from here. Inflation, weak dollar, China and US strong economy justifies the current high energy price. Energy price will stay high for quite long term. Wall Street analysts are still living in past memory of low oil price in 1990's world. In fact, current oil price is still at half of price of 1970's peak if we adjust inflation from then.

Second of all, even if I am wrong and wall street analysts are right, and natural gas price crashing down to $4.5 or oil price crashing down below $30 in next 2-3 years, CHK current stock price has already factored in such low energy price (see above table).

Third, the NAV value is a moving target. Specifically for CHK, NAV is growing at 20% to 25% per year recently.

* CHK - NAV growth 20% or $3 per share per year

Neither CHK nor WLL pay dividend. They all reinvest their profit into acquiring or drilling for more oil or gas reserve. Therefore, reserve based NAV adjusted by cash or debt reflect true net asset value for the stock. Reserve based NAV increase per year reflect their true earning of business.

CHK NAV value per share has been growing at 20% - 25% per year rate or $3 per share currently. Even if energy stocks continue to trade at current low valuation to its true earnings, CHK stock price is likely to increase 20% - 25% return per year just due to its NAV increase. If Wall Street finally accept high energy price as norm in the future, then CHK can reward shareholders even more.

CHK mainly achieved this excellent operation performance by following measures:

Low cost drilling and fast organic production growth. Current quarter yearly organic production growth is 11%. This is one of highest in the industry.

Excellent acquisition track record. Over past few years, CHK has been able to dramatically increase production of acquired property in short term so that CHK's acquisitions have been accretive to current shareholders. Even though the latest acquisition is slightly dilutive in per reserve basis, it is expected to be accretive in cashflow or earning basis. Successful out-performing hedging program. CHK has been able to obtain above industry hedging prices over past years. CHK is not locked into long term contract of low prices as many do. For the current quarter CHK realized a low gas price due to past hedging so that their earning per share is flat compared to last year. CHK hedging is light in 2005 or beyond so that higher price can be expected in 2005 or beyond.

(2) WLL stock price $31, NAV $63

WLL is trading at discount even to private acquisition price and very low multiples to its cashflow. WLL also has very experienced management team with long track record in oil gas business.

WLL reported $63 per share PV-10 NAV at latest quarterly earning report. Currently WLL is trading significantly below its PV-10 NAV value. In fact, WLL is trading at big discount to its peers too. WLL is trading at $1.32 per Mcfe reserve. The current average industry acquisition price was $1.5 per Mcfe reserve over past 1.5 years.

For the 1st half of 2004 WLL generated 18% of annualized return after replacing all the reserve depletion. The recent acquisition of $44 million acquisition is accretive at $1.11 Mcfe per reserve cost. It is accretive in either reserve , cashflow or revenue basis. With more accretive deals like this, WLL NAV growth can be 20% per year or more instead.

The recent 2 quarters reported yearly organic production of only 2%, much lower than expected 5% - 10% growth. However, production growth is over-rated performance measurement in Wall Street. Most importantly, WLL did not waste any money into over-spending. WLL simply did not spend extra expected drilling capex. WLL reserve replacement drilling cost was still low. From investor point of view, even if WLL production growth is not as good as CHK, WLL NAV can still grow at 18% to 20% per year with smart accretive acquisition and low cost drilling.

(3) Conclusion

I continue to like WLL and CHK. I continue to hold WLL CHK in Blast Investor Real-time Plus model portfolio.

Article by Henry Lu

Stock Chart Reading

2008-06-13T22:40:00.015-07:00

As an investor you will want to check out any equity before you buy it. Many investors go to Morningstar which is one of the largest providers of mutual fund information in the world. It is assumed that their information is correct. After all that is what you are paying for.

Recently the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) called them on the carpet for not correcting an error within a reasonable time (whatever that is according to the SEC). Everyone makes errors and this was no big deal.

It seems that when you went to their site and drew up a chart or asked for statistics on Rock Canyon Top Flight mutual fund it failed to notify the potential buyer that the fund had issued a very large dividend of approximately 25% and the NAV (Net Asset Value) dropped from $15 to $11 to reflect the $4.00 dividend.

When you ask for a chart of this fund on MarketWatch, Yahoo, TheStreet or Bloomberg they only post the NAV and do not make any adjustment for the dividend or capital gains distributions. Looking at the chart it appears the fund fell out of bed. Because I look at so many charts I knew immediately that this was a distribution and not some calamity. It is best to call the fund to verify this.

Most funds that make dividend and capital gains distributions usually do so in December, some in November and very few at other times during the year.

Some nitpicker called the SEC and made a complaint about Morningstar. Not that I am a big fan of them (in fact I think their reports are worthless) they get their price information from other sources such as the above. If you are not familiar with the requirement of mutual funds to disburse their profit before year end you might be fooled when you see the price suddenly drop.

This is important for potential investors. I caution everyone to get a chart on the Internet of at least a one year performance of any mutual fund before buying. It is better to go back to year 2000 to see if the fund manager was able to keep from losing money during the last 4 years. Almost none of them could so they bamboozle about how they did better than the S&P500 Index which had a huge loss of 50% and remains down 25% from those highs at this time. Don't fall for that one.

Once again I caution that any purchase should have an exit plan. One of the basic rules of investing is never to lose a lot if you are wrong. Small losses will not ruin your portfolio, but big losses can ruin your retirement. Set your loss limit (5%, 10% or ?) and stick with it.

Charts can help you with buying/selling decisions, but check out their accuracy as charting is not an exact science.

By Al Thomas

Analysts - Do They Really Know The Stock Market?

2008-06-13T22:40:00.013-07:00

When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund you can call your broker and he will send you reports on how the company is doing, what their management is like and what might be the projected earnings for the company and how the industry is doing. Great information.

You will apply yourself to this mound of papers to determine if you want to buy the equity. You might also send for more reports from independent analysts such as Morningstar. You will become buried in papers. That is what the brokerage company wants. The reason is very simple. If you buy the stock after doing all that research and it goes down instead of up they are not responsible for your stupidity. Of course, if it goes up they can take credit for providing all that great information.

Now let's think for a minute. You received all that information that was already printed so it could be sent to you. It makes me ask when was that printed? How old is the information? If I can get all this stuff about the company it means that anyone can. What it boils down to is the information is just that - information and none of it will tell you that the stock will go up further because the whole world knows.

These brochures are made to help you BUY not SELL. In my years of experience I call them a work of fiction. No brokerage company is going to issue a bad report about a company at least until it is ready for bankruptcy and by then your investment dollars have disappeared.

I know your next question. If I can't rely on those reports how am I going to buy anything? There is a better way. You will want to see the price action of the stock or mutual fund. All stocks undulate as they go up or down and you want to know the major trend.

On the Internet you can go to a web site www.bigcharts.com and type in the symbol of the stock or fund and request a weekly chart going back for about to 5 years. What you are interested in is what is it doing during the past 6 months to one year. If the trend is up it is a buy and if the trend is down or sideways don't buy it or if you own it sell. See how easy that is. Brokers and financial planners won't like it because it takes all the mystery out of buying stock and they don't want you to know this simple procedure.

Analyst reports give you lots of useless information, but will not tell if the stock will go up after you buy it. If it isn't going up don't buy it.

By Al Thomas

High Price/Earnings Ratios and the Stock Market: a Personal Odyssey

2008-06-13T22:40:00.011-07:00

After some forty years of banking and investments, I retired in 2001. But since I do not golf, I soon found retirement to be very boring. So I decided to return to the investment world after ten months. However, those ten months were not a complete waste of time, for I had spent them in trying to utilize my forty years of investment experience to gain perspective on the most recent stock market "bubble" and subsequent "crash."

There were several people who saw the stock market crash coming, but they had different ideas as to when it would occur. Those who were too early had to suffer the derision of their peers. It was difficult to take a stand when so many were proclaiming that we were in a "new era" of investing and that the old rules no longer applied. Since the beginning of 1998 through the market high of March 2000, among 8,000 stock recommendations by Wall Street analysts, only 29 recommended "sell."

I am on record as having called for a cautious approach to investment two years before the "Crash of 2000." In an in-house investment newsletter dated April 1998, I have a picture of the "Titanic" with the caption: "Does anyone see any icebergs?"

When I resumed employment in 2002, I happened to glance at the chart on the last page of Value Line, which showed the stock market as having topped out, by coincidence, in April 1998, the same date as my "Titanic" newsletter! The Value Line Composite Index reached a high of 508.39 on April 21, 1998 and has been lower EVER SINCE! But on the first page of the same issue, the date of the market high was given as "5-22-01"! When I contacted Value Line about this discrepancy , I was surprised to learn that they had changed their method of computing the index for "market highs" from "geometric" to "arithmetic." They said they would change the name of the Value Line "Composite" Index to the Value Line "Geometric" Index, since that is how it has been computed over the years. Currently Value Line is showing a recent market low on 10-9-02 and the most recent market high, based on this new "arithmetic" index, on 4-5-04, ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH! If they had stayed with the original "geometric" index, the all-time high would still be April 21, 1998!

Later that year, I was pleasantly surprised to read in "Barron's" an interview with Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, that said that his indicators had picked up on the bear market's beginnings in April 1998, the same date as my "Titanic" newsletter! So, my instincts were correct! I believe that we are in a "secular" downturn that began in April 1998 and the "Bubble of 2000" was a market rally in what was already a long-term bear market.

Another development transpired soon after I resumed employment in 2002. I happened to notice one day that, in its "Market Laboratory," "Barron's" had inexplicably changed the P/E Ratio of the S&P 500 to 28.57 from 40.03 the previous week! This was due to a change to "operating" earnings of $39.28 from "net" or "reported " earnings of $28.31 the previous week. I and others wrote to "Barron's Mailbag" to complain about this change and to disagree with it, since these new P/E ratios could not be compared with historical P/Es. "Barron's apparently accepted our arguments and, about two months later, changed back to using "reported" earnings instead of "operating" earnings and revised the S&P 500 data to show a P/E Ratio of 45.09 compared to a previous week's 29.64.

But a similar problem occurred the next day in a sister publication to "Barron's." On April 9, 2002, "The Wall Street Journal" came out with a new format that included, for the first time, charts and data for the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000, in addition to its own three Dow Jones indices. The P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 was given as 26, instead of the 45.09 now found in "Barron's." I wrote to the WSJ and after much correspondence back and forth, they finally accepted my argument and on July 29, 2002 changed the P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 from 19 to 30! I had given them examples showing where some financial writers had inadvertently confused "apples" with "oranges" by comparing their P/E of 19, based on "operating" earnings, with the long-term average P/E of 16, based on "reported" earnings.

Because I started to be cautious about investing as early as April 1998, since I thought that price/earnings ratios for the stock market were perilously high, I was not hurt personally by the "Crash of 2000" and had tried to get my clients into less aggressive and more liquid positions in their investment portfolios. But the pressures to go along with the market were tremendous!

Price/earnings ratios do not enable us to "time the market." But comparing them to past historical performance does enable us to tell when a stock market is high and vulnerable to eventual correction, even though others around us may have lost their bearings. High P/Es alert us to a need for caution and a conservative approach in our investment decisions, such as a renewed emphasis on dividends. Very high P/Es usually indicate a long-term bear market may ensue for a very long period of time. We are apparently in such a long-term bear market now. But in determining whether the market is high, we must be vigilant with regard to what data mambers of the financial press are reporting to us, so we can compare "apples" with "apples." When the financial information does not appear to be correct, we, as financial analysts, owe it to the investment community to challenge such information. That is what I have concluded from my personal "odyssey" in the investment world.

After three years of the DJIA and the S&P 500 closing below their previous year-end figures, the market finally closed higher at the end of 2003. But the P/E ratio is still high for both indices.

Does anyone see any icebergs?

By Henry V. Janoski, MBA, CFA, CSA

Defining a Long-Term Investment in the Stock Market

2008-06-13T22:40:00.009-07:00

For some "long term" would mean holding a stock position over the weekend. For others, it may mean holding a security for at least 1 year for the purpose of declaring a long-term capital gain, thus saving on taxes.

The rigid definition of a long-term investment in the stock market would be holding a security for a minimum of 5 years, to as long as 30 years.

I'm going to tell you my definition of a long-term investment in a security by telling you a story. A true story!

My Mother worked as a teller in a small bank in Dover, New Jersey. The name of the bank was called The Dover Community Bank. While working at the bank (she eventually became a branch manager) she enrolled in the bank's dividend reinvestment plan, making purchases of the stock through pay-roll deductions from her paycheck. She continued purchasing the stock through the years, having the dividends from her shares in the bank reinvested into more shares every quarter. By the time she left the bank (in the early seventies) she had accumulated around 300 shares of The Dover Community Bank.

My Father, when he retired, had the dividends from those shares sent home - to help ends meet. When my Dad passed away at age 80, my brother and I inherited over 7,600 shares of The Bank of New York, all originating from those 300 shares of what was once called The Dover Community Bank.

So, through this individual experience I have adopted my own opinion of what is called a long-term investment in a security. It is simply this - securities should be purchased with the intent of providing dividend income to help ends meet during retirement, with the understanding that no one can successfully retire without financial freedom.

So every investment now in a security would be purchased with the intent of holding that security (and adding to it during the years) until the dividend income from that security is ample enough to ease the loss of income from retiring from my job. Now, I not only provide for myself during my retirement years, but will leave this earthly realm knowing that I will also be able to relieve some financial burdens for those I've left behind.

With this definite, concrete purpose for investing in mind, a definite, concrete plan would need to be created (and can be found in my book The Stockopoly Plan) to achieve this long-term investment goal. My Mother invested in only one stock and got lucky - a considered plan would diversify.

If I am going to hold a security position forever, what criteria should I be looking for in that security? Certainly, dividend income - that's a given! And since I never intend to sell the security, capital gains may not even be an issue (more on this later).

So then, what else? I would argue that a company that just pays a dividend isn't good enough. Instead, I will only purchase those companies that have a long history of raising their dividend every year. This will eliminate a whole bunch of risk. It would eliminate the possibility that the company is 'cooking their books;' after all, the money has to be there to pay the shareholder. And because this company has been raising their dividend every year for many years, it eliminates the risk of investing in a start-up company that may not even be around in a year or so.

Also, the rising dividend every year would help off-set the risk of inflation and the risk of a lower stock price during the year would actually accelerate my income from the security.

Since I would want my position in the stock to grow through the years, thus increasing my dividend income, all dividends would be reinvested into the stock, until retirement. A lower stock price, therefore, would purchase more shares, at a higher dividend yield and would simply accelerate my dividend income.

Now the question may arise, when would I want to sell a stock? Certainly not because a Merrill Lynch has downgraded the whole sector - that's a blessing in disguise - a temporary lower stock price just means a higher dividend yield, allowing my dividend to purchasing more shares.

The question of when to sell a stock puts me in the mind of a quote I once read by Jacobsen - "Judgment is the one thing you cannot learn at college. You either have it or you don't have it." The time/reason to sell a stock varies. If there comes a time when you have so much money tied up in just one stock position that it's making you feel uncomfortable, sell some of it. If the company you purchased stopped raising its dividend you may want to lighten up and/or divert the funds you were putting into that security into one that is continuing its program of increasing their dividend every year.

A company may trim their dividend - when and if this happens (and it does) my advice is not to be overly anxious to sell the stock. Find the reason why the company is trimming their dividend. It may be to reduce debt or for the possibility of acquisitions. The company's dividend yield may have been around 6 percent, and all their peers' dividend yields are around 4 percent. Certainly, do not add to your holdings in this company, but give management a chance to see how they handle the extra cash, since they appear to have better use for the money, other than to pay their shareholders. The resulting growth in that company may make up for the lower dividend yield and two or three years later you'll get a better perspective on whether to sell the company or not (or to continue adding more shares through new monies, or simply to allow the dividends to continue purchasing the stock).

By Charles M. O'Melia

Investing in the Stock Market - When To!

2008-06-13T22:40:00.007-07:00

Is really not as important as to how you invest in the stock market. And how you invest in the stock market should take into consideration what goals you are setting for that stock market investment.

For example, are you investing for capital appreciation or for income through dividend paying stocks? Or is the investment in the stock market for the combination of both capital appreciation and dividend income?

Are you investing through a Mutual fund(s) or selecting your own individual stocks?

Do you invest with a lump-sum dollar amount or dollar-cost average into your stock or Mutual fund positions (buying the same stock or Mutual fund at different prices over the years)?

Is your investment dollar spread too thin and are all of those dollars working for your ROI (return on investment)?

Do you pay commission fees to purchase a stock?

Do you pay load fees in your Mutual fund(s)? How much does your Mutual fund(s) charge you for management, operating and marketing fees (they are called 'hidden fees')?

'How' you invest in the stock market is more important than 'when' you invest in the stock market and 'how' you invest will determine your ROI.

When you invest in the stock market is after you devise a how-to plan that takes into consideration all of the factors above. Quite frankly, every cent of your investor dollar should benefit you and your family and no one else.

It is my opinion that all stock purchases should be made without commission fees (which is possible). That the investment in all stocks should be a long-term investment, and that every stock purchased should have a history of raising their dividend every year. And all dividends should be reinvested back into the company's shares (also commission free), until retirement.

By purchasing those companies that have a long-term history of raising their dividend each year (for example, Comerica - 35 years, Proctor and Gamble - 47 years, BB&T - 32 years, GE - 28 years, Atmos Energy - 17 years (they also provide a 3% discount on all shares purchased through dividend reinvestments), the 'HOW' you invest becomes automatic- you dollar-cost average into your holdings through the dividends provided by the companies every quarter.

The dividend is the one factor a company cannot 'fudge'. The money has to be there to pay the shareholder. If a company can raise their dividend every year, the company MUST be doing something right! When a company has a long history of raising their dividend every year you in a sense eliminate risk, since a lower stock price for that company just means a higher dividend yield. If, for example, a stock purchased at $50.00 a share drops to $36.00 a share, the income provided by the dividend income accelerates, and your dividend reinvestment provides you a better dividend 'bang for your buck'.

There have been many up and downs in the stock market these past 47 years (I know, I've been in almost 40 of them) - yet Proctor and Gamble has never failed to raise their dividend during those past 47 years.

Below is an example of two types of investors that have $10,000 to invest in the stock market. One is a lump-sum investor, the other a dollar-cost averaging investor. One investor doesn't care about dividends, the dollar-cost averaging investor does.

Each investor took a different 'HOW' to invest and both investors had the same 'WHEN' when they invested. Let's say they invested at the same time, each stock purchased at $50 dollars a share and every quarter the stock dropped $2.00 a share, till the stocks hit a bottom of $36.00, and then recovers back to $50.00.

The lump-sum investor bought the fictitious company ABC, which does not pay a dividend, and the dollar-cost averaging investor purchased the fictitious company XYZ, which pays a quarterly dividend of 50 cents a share (a 4.0% yearly dividend yield), and the company had a history of raising their dividend every March for the past 41 consecutive years. Both purchases were made in January.

The lump sum investor bought 200 shares of ABC at $50.00 a share, watched the stock drop to $36.00, then recover back to $50.00 and when all was said and done ended up right where he started with 200 shares of ABC worth $10,000.

The dollar-cost averaging investor purchased 100 shares of XYZ in January for $5,000.00, (the stock paying a quarterly 50 cent a share dividend for a 4.0 percent yearly dividend yield), and purchased $1,000.00 worth of more shares every quarter for the next 5 quarters. Each quarter the dividend from the company was also reinvested into more shares of stock. Each March the company raised its dividend 2 cents a share, marking 45 consecutive years of rising dividends. All purchases were commission free.

January, 100 shares of XYZ @ 50.00 a share = $5,000

Date: Stock Price: Div. Purchases: Share Purchases:

March $48.00 @.52 = 1.083 $1,000 = 20.83 shares
June $46.00 @.52 = 1.378 $1,000 = 21.74 shares
Sept $44.00 @.52 = 1.714 $1,000 = 22.72 shares
Dec. $42.00 @.52 = 2.098 $1,000 = 23.81 shares
March $40.00 @.54 = 2.098 $1,000 = 25.00 shares
June $38.00 @.54 = 2.637 - 0 -
Sept $36.00 @.54 = 3.169 - 0 -
Dec. $38.00 @.54 = 3.393 - 0 -
March $40.00 @.56 = 3.260 - 0 -
June $42.00 @.56 = 3.194 - 0 -
Sept $44.00 @.56 = 3.045 - 0 -
Dec. $48.00 @.56 = 2.827 - 0 -
March $50.00 @.58 = 2.843 - 0 -

The dollar-cost averaging investor now owns 247.953 shares of XYZ. The value at $50.00 a share = $12,397.65.

So, the lump-sum investor ends up right where he started, 200 shares of ABC worth $10,000, and the dollar-cost averaging investor ends up owning 247.953 shares of XYZ worth $12,397.65, along with the dividend income generated from owning those shares. Both had the same 'when' when they invested.

The dividend yield at 58 cents a quarter (.58 divided by $50.00 x 4 x 100 =), a 4.64% yearly dividend yield. Every quarter every dividend received from the company was higher than the previous dividend, no matter what the stock price was at the end of the quarter.

The dollar-cost averaging investor is receiving a dividend for the next quarter from XYZ (no matter what the stock price happens to be) of .58 X 247.953 shares = $143.81, and the next quarter (and every quarter thereafter) the dividend would be even higher if the company, at least, maintained their dividend.

If XYZ repeated the same performance history ($50.00 down to $36.00, back up to $50.00) for the next 3 years, and ABC did the same - the HOW you invest in the stock market makes all the difference in the world.

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You have permission to this article either electronically or in print as long as the author bylines are included, with a live link, and the article is not changed in any way, (typos excluded). Please provide a courtesy e-mail to: charles@thestockopolyplan.com telling where the article was published.

By Charles M. O'Melia

Mutual Fund Honor Roll - Buy High, Sell Low by Chasing Performance

2008-06-13T22:40:00.005-07:00

Buy high and sell low -- It's not a typo.

Millions of investors guarantee their failure by selecting mutual funds and stocks based on quarterly or annual performance records. Do you chase performance? You might be buying high and selling low!

As the year draws to a close, millions of mutual fund investors begin an annual event to divine next year's winners. Yet most of these individuals rely heavily on a time-honored - but terribly wrong - method of evaluating strength. Whether analyzing screening tools from websites, reviewing fund honor rolls in magazines, or using star ratings from fund analysts, normally savvy business people foolishly chase the returns of last year's hottest investments.

This begs the question: Can top performing mutual funds lead two years in a row? Consider a study commissioned by Vanguard Investments Australia and released by Morningstar. The five best performing funds were analyzed from 1994 to 2003. Here are the results:

-- Only 16% of top five funds make it to the following year's list.

-- Top five funds average 15% lower returns the following year.

-- Top five funds barely beat (by 0.3%) the market the following year.

-- 21% of all top five funds ceased to exist within the following 10 years.

Academic studies and market statistics confirm the typical investor acts in direct opposition to the sage advice - buy low, sell high. It's only after high returns are realized and reported that investors pour money into both stock and bond mutual funds. In fact, Financial Research Corporation compared investor cash flows into mutual funds. Purchases immediately following best-performing quarters exceed 14 times those immediately following their worst-performing quarters. In other words, you are 14 times more likely to buy funds at their highest price than at it's lowest. Buy high and sell low.

Just what kind of damage are they inflicting to their investment returns? DALBAR, Inc., conducted a well-known study called Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. The study confirms investors' poor timing and the resulting financial carnage. Investors buy funds immediately after a rapid price appreciation. This just happens to be right before investment performance wanes. Prices fall soon after and the investors quickly dump their holdings to search for the next hot fund. The resulting returns fail to even beat inflation! When measured over the last nineteen years, the average equity investor earned a meager 2.6% annual return. Compare that to a 3.1% inflation rate and a 12.2% return from the S&P 500 over the exact same time period. Not only did investors fail to keep up with the market, they also lost money to inflation.

We've all seen the warnings on packages of cigarettes. Even smokers understand their relevance; smoking is not a healthy activity. So why do investors not heed warnings about mutual fund returns? You've all seen those statements too. But can you remember what is said? Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Research and studies have proven this fact, yet the majority of investors choose to ignore this warning. Yes, it's an easy means of comparing funds. It also happens to be completely irrelevant. Let me evangelize these words for you. Past performance does not predict future results!

Here's how you can stop chasing short term performance and stay focused on your financial goals. Identify appropriate long-term investments by evaluating the following:
(1) Leadership: How does the fund perform relative to similar size and similar style funds?
(2) Tenure: How long have the managers and advisors been at the fund?
(3) Management: Managers well-known, highly-regarded (e.g. remember Peter Lynch)?
(4) Consistency: Are the 3, 5, and 10 year returns all above average?

Finally, measure returns based on your entire portfolio. History shows that no single investment success repeats. Accept the fact every year is different and brings new leaders and laggards. Use an asset allocation strategy to guarantee balance and increase long term returns among all your investments. Invest in a diversified portfolio to meet your financial goals - and stick with it.

Not yet learned your lesson? Consider this: Fourteen mutual funds topped the 2003 charts with returns over 100%. In 2004, these fourteen funds lost over 4% while the S&P 500 gained 3%. Congratulations, chasing performance lost 7% of your money this year.

By Tim Olson

Forecasting the Stock Market

2008-06-13T22:40:00.003-07:00

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

By Al Thomas

How to Make Big Money Safely in Stock Market

2008-06-13T22:40:00.001-07:00

(1) Stock Market is Tough Place to Make Any Money Consistently

NASDAQ or SP&500 averaged about -6% per year for 5 years between 1999 and 2003. Many individual investors who made killing in the internet bubble period got wiped out during those 5 years. Many who trusted Wall Street experts by investing their life savings into mutual fund had rude awakening after the huge loss and scandals in many of the famous fund names.

Numerous academic studies have shown that more than 90% of mutual funds failed to beat market over the long run and that more than 90% of individual investors lost money in the stock market. Too many people and too many Wall Street experts or mutual fund managers are buying and selling stocks like madmen, with no sound strategy or any hope of long term success. Ironically, they're the ones who create opportunities for prudent, long term oriented investors.

To be successful in stock market, you either have to become an expert yourself or to seek help from real successful experts. Stock market is such a brutal place that there is no room for half-expert or expert pretenders. The truth is that only a small percentage of disciplined and experienced people earn disproportionate huge amount of return, many times at the expense of the rest. It is an insult to "Wall Street expert" professional title when so many of such "expert pretenders" failed to beat index or merely stay break-even.

(2) Majority of huge performance claims in Ads by "Experts" are not real

Too many investment newsletters or hot mutual funds touted their huge past performance and went into disaster later on. Who do you believe? I have been in this stock market long enough to know that majority of their claims are not "real". I will tell you why below.

The first reason is simply due to "cheating". Let's be honest about many Ads. Many of them do not tell the whole and true story of their performance. For example, they would tout huge percentage of gains for certain winning stocks and hide the losing stocks. If you look deeper into their whole portfolio performance, their portfolio performance was not impressive at all. Many investment newsletters will have multiple portfolios in publication. In their ads, they will only mention the performance of the winning portfolio and hide the losing portfolio. The problem with multiple portfolios is that when you subscribe to their newsletters, you would not easily know which portfolio out of many will have best performance in the long run. Which portfolio do you follow? Most important of all, which portfolio out of many does the newsletter author invests for his/her own money? If the newsletter author or the mutual fund manager does not invest into a portfolio himself or herself, how would you trust their services?

Even if past performance of a newsletter or a mutual fund was pretty good, it may not indicate good performance in the future. Many hot technology mutual funds jumped up 100% or more in the 90's and dived to their death after 90% to 99% of loss. Certain investment methods such as growth stocks investing are known to be risky. Momentum investing or day trading methods are known to be extremely risky methods that can wipe out life savings over night. There is simply no free lunch. While a risky method can produce fabulous gain in relative short term, over the long run, a risky method is more likely to make people poorer rather than richer even if a short term gain was gigantic. Gigantic short term gain is just a dangerous stock market trap to lure the inexperienced people into the market. Dreaming for instant satisfaction of huge short term gain overnight with speculation is just a recipe for disaster ahead.

(3) Value Investing is the Only Proven Safe Method

Value mutual funds are well known to have lower volatility than growth mutual funds. Numerous industry and acedemic studies have shown that value stocks as a group performed far better than growth stocks in bear market. Many technology and internet so called "growth stocks" lost 90% to 99% of value in just a couple of years after 2000 while many value stocks went up during the same time frame.

In fact, the single most important element to obtain high investment performance over the long run is to maintain MARGIN OF SAFETY of a portfolio. That is why the greatest investor Warren Buffet once quote "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.".

(4) Value Investing is the Proven Method to Make Big Money in the Stock Market

I know that I'm going to catch a lot of flak for saying this, and that many people will misunderstand what I'm saying. There are certainly other methods of investing or trading, which made people rich. There are certainly many under- performing value mutual funds, which give people wrong impression that value investing is equivalent of low performance with less risk.

However, I want to emphasize that in fact value investing is investment style that can obtain high performance with less risk. I want to stand by my above statement for the following reasons:

* In the early years of my investment career, I have studied and tried all kinds of well known methods of famous investors or traders, Short term trading, Momentum trading, Technical Analysis, CANSLIM, growth stock long term buy and hold, Random Walk theory, etc. I have been there and I have done there. Evidenced by my past investment performance, value investing is the only method that delivered gigantic investment return consistently for me over past many years. In 2003, I have made more than $150,000 in stock market with value investing method. In 2004, I have made even more money than 2003 so far. With the power of compounding, there is really no upper limit for the investment profit with value investing.

* In 1984, Warren Buffet gave a speech titled The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, which categorized performance of many famous value investors who beat market year in and year out. Many of people mentioned in this article are legendary multi-billionaire right now. It is true that only a small percentage of investors can beat market consistently. However, it is not by chance at all that so many of students of Benjamin Graham became super riches in America while other methods have not produced that many rich people. It is also not coincident at all that the second richest person in the world is a value investor named Warren Buffet, a student of Benjamin Graham as well.

(5) Value investing will not distract your regular job

The nicest thing about value investing is that it will not distract your regular job if you choose not to stare at the stock market frequently in your office. In fact, it is quite healthy to forget about stock market in your office and worry about that only at your home after work.

Many newbies in the stock market still believe that if they stare at stock price quote closely, they can obtain better chances of winning. It will not. Staring at the stock quote is least important part of this game. In fact, staring closely at the stock price quote is more likely to create a loser rather than a winner because of greed and fear in the stock market. The more one is unable to resist the mad mood of Mr. Market, the more likely one is unable to invest successfully with value investment method.

I am not saying that successful value investing does not require time. The time you will need in value investing depends on the investment vehicle you utilize. If you invest with a value mutual fund, you will not need much time in stock market and you only need to follow up quarterly with your fund's performance. If you are a passive investor of my investment newsletter Blast Investor Real-time Plus and you follow my model portfolio passively, you will only need to pay attention to my infrequent trade alert closely and read my newsletter issues every 2 weeks. If you invest by yourself, you will certainly need hours of time every week to look at hundreds of value stock leads and do your own due diligence by reading 10Q or 10K SEC filling, or by listening to conference calls, or by talking to company's management.

(6) Successful Value Investing is Hard, But You can Do It!

I certainly do not want to make you to believe that value investing is as easy as reading couple of books. Value investing not only requires tons of knowledge and expertise in financial analysis, accounting, US tax law, US bankruptcy law, etc., it also requires real life training of right psychology to fight against greed and fear in the stock market. It is hard to do.

However, successful investing certainly can be done and I have done it over past decade myself. You certainly want to look at my investing articles of this web site for more information.

(7) You need to start early in value investing

Let's be honest about value investing, it is not a get-rich- quick scam and it takes time to really make living with value investing without need of your regular job. You need large starting principle if you want to make living from stock market investment than your salary.

By reading Warren Buffet's article above, you can pretty much guess that successful value investors can achieve 20% to 30% per year performance consistently over the long run regardless of whether market is bear or bull although it is possible to obtain significantly higher performance in earlier investment years due to smaller fund size and luck. 20% or 30% more consistent investment return is already very high return over the long run. Since Peter Lynch retired from Fidelity, you can rarely find a mutual fund with that kind of performance over past many years.

The best approach is to treat stock market investment as side business in addition to your regular job. Your regular job help you pay your bills and help you earn the initial principle for value investing. Once your investment net worth surpasses $100,000, sooner or later you will realize that your regular job salary can hardly keep up with compounded rate of investment return. Too many people naively believe that they can get rich quick with speculative trading method in stock market rather than a hard work with a job and value investing at side. It is a lot easier to make your first $50,000 net worth with a job rather than speculation in stock market.

Even if you do not have large sum of money right now as principle to make really big profit out of value investing, you still want to start value investing early so that you can learn in and out of value investing in your earlier years of investing in the stock market. Successful investment is long term process. The earlier you start investing successfully, the better off your pocketbook will be, and the quicker you will reach your financial freedom. Let's do a quick math, if your starting capital for investing is $50,000 and your annual compouned rate of return is 30%, you will need 9 years to surpass $500,000 net worth. However, to turn $500,000 net worth into 1 million, you only need 3 more years, think hard!

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By Henry Lu

The Stock Market Investor's Worst Enemy

2008-06-13T22:39:00.001-07:00

Every stock market investor faces one primal enemy. An enemy so perverse, it will drive thousands of investors from the stock market through its ability to defeat even the most practiced investment strategy. Who is this enemy you ask? Your arch nemesis, in this case, goes by the name E. Motions?don't ask me what the "E" stands for.

Emotions are the driving force behind every stock market cycle. Quite simply, if they weren't present in the stock market, investors could be reaping rewards based solely on the expanding or receding economy, and professional traders wouldn't have any juicy profits from those emotional mistakes to grab.

Here is an example scenario:

Let's say that you've done your homework, read the books, traded on paper, and now you're making your fondest dream come true by investing in the market and making money!

You maturely approach losses as part of the learning curve. You've experienced your share of them but your wins are still in the lead, thanks to the commitment you made of not deviating from your chosen strategy. Euphoria sits on your shoulder.

One day, after 3 frustrating hours in traffic, you get home to find changes. You know that you should follow your strategy, but Stress and Greed are in charge. You're buying and selling outside your strategy, but are confident that it will be ok - just this once.

Now prices are dropping and Fear enters the room.

Fear attacks every investor's self-confidence with a voracious need for control. You spend sleepless nights listening to his mantra - you don't know what you're doing.

Fear and Greed are now dictating the strategy. Self-confidence is on the critical list. Reason and Caution are under attack and are losing.

You ignore the primary investment rule of buying low, selling high because you've lost too much and have to recoup. You close your eyes and dive in to recover your losses. "It will work," says Greed on your right. "It has to work!" responds Fear on your left.

Your partner has now entered the fray and is hounding you about the lost money. Your capital is almost gone. You erred grievously and invested money that you need now. Margin calls are being made. You're out of control.

While the components of the above scenario will change, the catalyst of this nightmare remains the same - emotions. You'll survive the nightmare, but the experience will forever change you. Fear will shade every future stock market decision and severely limit your ability to objectively evaluate any investment opportunity out of fear that you'll lose again. But, it doesn't have to be that way.

Developing a strategy to deal with emotions can give you a winning edge.
Here's how:
Don't go into the stock market to feel good about yourself.
Always look outside of the stock market for self-gratification and affirmation.
Make a commitment to stick to your chosen action plan or strategy. Don't deviate.
When a loss occurs, examine it and learn from it. Don't try to get even.
Think before you leap into anything

If you are stressed out, vulnerable, or overly emotional (high or low), do not trade. It's not worth the financial risk.

Remember, the key isn't denying or curbing your emotions, but instead understanding how they impact your investment decisions and developing a strategy to work with them.

By Jeff Fairchild

Picking Mutual Funds to Outperform the Market

2008-06-13T22:38:00.015-07:00

With over 6,000 mutual funds available, it may be tempting to pick funds from a popular star or index rating system. Savvy investors, however, balance multiple factors in their selection process. Ratings represent only the historical performance of funds and cannot predict the future. Performance consistency, management skill, and expense limitations are among the many factors that influence a fund's prospects. Each must be carefully evaluated to improve your chances of finding a fund to outperform the market.

Create a plan
Define your financial goals. Are you saving for retirement? Putting money aside for a home? Funding a child's college education? Your answer will have significant implications on your choice of mutual funds. More time gives you flexibility to use an aggressive approach. Immediate needs call for safety and capital preservation. Take careful consideration of your tolerance for risk. If the market dips, at what point would you lose sleep? Is it a 5% drop? 10% drop? An asset allocation plan will balance your portfolio and maximize return for your level of acceptable risk.

Dismiss recent results
Past performance is no indicator of future results. No truer words could ever be spoken and they are included in every mutual fund advertisement. But it's extremely difficult to ignore these numbers which the fund companies conveniently place in big bold letters - immediately above the fine print warning us. Nothing is more attractive than a fund with a great record, especially given the dismal performance in the market.

Past performance can provide a good starting point, but nothing more. In fact, past performance predicts losers better than the winners. A 1998 study from fund-tracking firm Morningstar, demonstrated the top fund performers rarely hold their spot on the charts. The study also concludes bottom performers rarely did anything but continue to sink. Never assume the past will repeat itself, yet, ignore a fund's historical record at your own peril. Avoid the perennial losers.

Seek consistency
Evaluate a mutual fund's performance beyond just the recent year. Any fund can get lucky, but it's the rare firm that prove themselves year after year. Examining a fund's long term performance can answer the question of consistency. If the performance was good, was it repeatable due to skill - or merely a spike due to dumb luck?

Watch for a solid record of returns, rather than funds showing spurts of great years followed by fits of lousy ones. Compare the fund's returns to a relevant benchmark index, (large-cap vs. S&P 500, small-cap to the Russell Index, etc.) Solid funds should not only consistently beat the benchmarks, they should also beat their peers.

Seek good managers
Always review the experience and performance of the fund's managers. When you buy a mutual fund, you are actually investing in the experience, skill, and savvy that the manager brings to the table. When the manager leaves, the fund performance generally goes with him. How many years has the manager been leading the fund? The longer (if generating strong results), the better. And keep an eye out for the gurus. The industry's better managers are well-respected, high-regarded, and often quoted in the press. You'll find multiple articles and even manager profiles published in the popular financial magazines and newspapers.

Think cheap
Check out the fund's cost of ownership. While you can not predict a fund's performance, you can control the ongoing expenses. Since expenses impact your ability to grow investments over time, select a fund with low costs. Check the expense ratio, sales fees, trading costs, and 12b-1 fees charged to cover the marketing, distribution and sales. Everything counts against your bottom line - keep it small as possible. When possible, choose funds with expenses less than their category average.

Taxes are often overlooked and can substantially reduce your after-tax gain unless investing within a tax-deferred, retirement account. Avoid funds with large distributions (capital gain payments) by searching for funds with low turnover. Since buying and selling stock incurs transaction costs, lower turnover translates to lower expenses and lower capital gains' taxes. Fund managers who seek to boost returns through repeatedly buying and selling securities are no friend of yours.

Putting it all together
Picking mutual funds is a challenging task. You will need to spend time learning, researching, investigating, analyzing, and comparing. The key is to develop your own methodology using some of the components listed here along with your own judgment and decision capabilities. Review your investment plan and fund selection criteria at least once a year. Make sure the plan still matches your goals and the funds match your expectations.

It's your money. It's your future. Take your time. Get it right.

By Tim Olson

Size Counts!

2008-06-13T22:38:00.013-07:00

What the heck am I talking about?

It is often said that to grow mentally, spiritually, emotionally and personally that you have to stretch and move out of your comfort zone. I definitely believe in this concept, however... When it comes to day trading, swing trading or position trading stocks, futures, options or forex, going outside your comfort zone can be dangerous!

Let me explain... Say, a trader is used to buying 100 shares of a stock at a time with the average value of $50/share. He/she is very comfortable with putting this amount at risk. They never experience any anxiety and can sleep well at night at this level. However, watch what happens when these traders decide to up their ante to 200 - 300 shares.

All of a sudden they are worried about every tick against them and start riding an emotional roller coaster based on the current price of the stock. At these levels they become much more emotional and their judgment becomes cloudy at times. Now they start making bad decisions that never occurred at the 100 share level.

A good idea is for you to take a good hard think about "what size trader" you are and where you are completely comfortable at. Write these numbers down and force yourself to never deviate from them. When the time does come to raise your bet size up, do it in increments over time. For example: If you want to go from 100 -200 shares, do 120 on week number 1, 140 on week number 2 etc.

I assure you, that by sticking to the concepts in this article that you will make trading a much more comfortable and profitable experience. Be patient and stay focused and the money may roll in at levels you never thought possible!

By Dr. Jeffrey Wilde

9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!

2008-06-13T22:38:00.011-07:00

The following are a list of nine things you want to avoid at all costs. Anyone of them can literally destroy your financial dreams and goals!

1. Trading with money you can't afford to lose.

One of the greatest obstacles to successful trading is using money that you really can't afford to lose. Examples of this would be money that is supposed to be used to pay the mortgage, bills or your child's college tuition. This is sometimes referred to as "trading with scared money" and there is a very good reason for that. Ultimately what happens is that when someone knows in the back of their mind that they are risking the rent money, they trade out of fear and emotion versus logic and no emotion.

If you are in this situation I highly recommend that you stop trading until you earn enough to put into an account that you truly can afford to lose without causing major financial setbacks. You can start with as little as $2000 and trade stocks under $30.

2. The need to be "certain".

We all have the need to make sure that the trade we want to make is going to be a good one. Therefore we look for signs that will give us a confirmation to enter. This can come in several forms, for example? Tuning into CNBC or the Wall Street Journal to give us news that our stock is on the move or waiting for a couple of extra days to make sure that the stock is really flying and just not on a false breakout. Other traders will get opinions from friends, family or broker. Others will wait for ten technical indicators to line up and give the "green light".

All of these are okay to a point, however the big mistake to avoid is taking so much time that you let the trade take off without you. Interestingly, what ends up happening as a result of waiting too long is that you actually increase your risk. This is because as a stock moves higher and higher there are fewer buyers left in the market and it can come tumbling down until more buyers step in. It is like a game of musical chairs; eventually someone gets caught without a chair.

Traders who wait and wait and wait to make extra sure are usually the ones buying the top tick just before the stocks sells off. They then beat themselves up thinking they picked the wrong stock. Odds are it had nothing to do with their selection, just bad timing.

The thing to keep in mind is that there can be no absolute certainty in any given trade. All we ever can do is take a very educated risk along with a leap of faith!

3. Spending profits before you make them.

Nothing is more exciting then getting into a trade that blasts off and puts you into a highly profitable situation. This can cause major problems however, because this type of trade puts you in a highly euphoric state and leads to daydreaming about the huge profits still to come. You say "Wow I'm already up 15% in two days; I'll be up 50% in a week and probably double my money in no time!" Then the next thing that happens is you are deciding on the great new car you are going to buy or perhaps telling your boss that he can stick it? Well you get the idea!

The real problem occurs as you get caught up in the daydream and expectations. This causes you to not be prepared to get out as the market sells off and eats up your profits because you have convinced yourself of the eventual outcome and will deny the reality of the situation.

The simple remedy for this is to know where and how you will take profits once you enter the trade. Also, realize that the market will only go up as long as it wants and not how high you think it should go.

4. Forming an opinion.

I'm here to tell you that the market does not give a damn about you or your opinions. Even if they are based on painstaking research or from a "Wall Street Guru", it doesn't matter!

Maybe your opinion on market direction for the long term is correct, but it doesn't mean that in the short term things can't move against you. Remember that there are tens of thousands of traders out there who also have an opinion. It is all these different opinions that can cause great fluctuations in price on any given day or week regardless of your outlook

5. Three 4-letter words that will kill you! HOPE---WISH---PRAY

If you ever find yourself doing one or more of the above while in a trade then you are in big trouble! As I have already said, the market doesn't give a damn. All the hoping, wishing and praying in the world is not going to turn a losing trade into a winning one.

When you are wrong just use a simple 4-letter word to correct the situation-SELL!

6. Not sticking to your plan

A big source of trouble arises when a trader starts to deviate from their strategy. Maybe for a week they will trade according to one set of rules and the next use something entirely different.

This flying by the seat of the pants always ends up backfiring. This is because the trader can never be certain what is working and what is not.

You must never deviate from your methodology once you start. As long as it is a good one statistically there is absolutely no reason to change it. The way to make money from it is to trade it over and over again to exploit the edge it gives you.

One thing to also be aware of is that a trader is most vulnerable to switching approaches after a few loses. So, pay special attention at these times.

7. Not knowing how to get out of a losing trade.

It's amazing how many people I have talked to who don't have any clear escape plan for getting out of a bad trade. Once again they hope, pray wish and rationalize their position. As I keep saying the market does not care what you think. It does what it does and when you are wrong you are wrong!

The easiest way to keep a bad trade from going really bad is to determine before you get in, where you will get out. You can use a dollar amount or at some target point such as the low of the previous 15-minute bar.

***Make sure you don't get the "stunned deer in the headlights syndrome". This is where you see the stock fall to your stop loss point, but you are unable to take action. Maybe this is due to fear or disbelief that you are wrong, but unless you get out ASAP you could end up I major financial trouble!

8. Having an ego.

I have seen a number of individuals enter the trading game that were extremely successful in other business ventures. Because of this they had a fairly big ego and thought they couldn't fail. Their egos became their downfall because they couldn't except that they were wrong and refused to bail out of bad trades.

Once again, whoever or wherever you came from does not concern the markets. All the charm, powers of persuasion, number of diplomas on the wall or business savvy will not budge the market when you are wrong.

9. Falling in love with a stock or trade.

Let me give you an example of what I mean. Back in the spring of 1999 EFAX was a really hot stock. I waited to buy it on a dip and did so at $19/share. It started to move up strongly and life was great!

After a while though, it started to come back to my entry point and then below it. Here's the problem. For some reason I really liked EFAX and sort of became attached to it. Ultimately I couldn't let go of it even though I knew I should. I justified and rationalized why my dear friend should bounce back, but it never did. I finally had to break off my love affair when the stock hit $9. (Ouch!)

The moral of this story is never fall in love, let alone get married to any stock. It can cost you dearly!

I can't emphasize enough the importance of the principles in this article. Whether you are a position trader, swing trader or day trader, these principles can help you avoid some costly and painful financial mistakes. As they say, smart people learn from their mistakes and brilliant people learn from the mistakes of others.

By Dr. Jeffrey Wilde

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Stock and Fund Dividends

2008-06-13T22:38:00.009-07:00

When is a dividend not a dividend?

The latest thing "conservative" brokers are preaching these days is to buy stocks that pay dividends. Everyone likes dividends. I know I do, but when Wall Street tells me something I am automatically suspicious because they lie to me every day. Is this a new scam? Let's take a look.

When you buy a bond or a CD at the bank it pays interest and is a real dividend. You might get a check every month, quarter or annually or receive a credit to your account. The amount of your principle (what you paid for it) remains the same. Yes, that is a true dividend.

Companies make big splashes about raising their dividend. It was 50 cents per share, but we have raised it to $1.00. Big deal. Yes, you will receive a check and at least you know the company has cash available to pay you. That is an indication the company is in good financial condition, but there have been many of the big names on the NYSE that have continued dividends even when they have lost money. How can that be?

Currently Microsoft has announced a dividend of $3.00 per share. The talking heads on CNBC-TV tell us they are loaded with cash and want to distribute it to their stockholders. Many people buy the stock in anticipation of the dividend as they think they will be getting an extra $3.00 per share. They are in for a big surprise.

The day that dividend is paid Microsoft stock (symbol MSFT) will automatically drop $3.00 per share. Today $27.00; tomorrow $24.00. Folks, this is NOT a dividend. This is a distribution of capital. You are being paid in your own asset. The fool that believes the Wall Street mumbo-jumbo will not have one extra penny after the dividend than he did before. In fact he will have less. Why?

The stockholder will now be allowed to pay income tax on the "dividend" distribution. To make that "dividend" seem even better the Bush administration has reduced dividend taxes from 38.6% to 15%. Thanks, Mr. Bush. Thanks for nothing. I can't blame him for more Maul Street smoke and mirrors. He has just made it cost less to get back your own money.

Companies seldom pay large dividends and they are paid quarterly. A $30 stock that pays a 4% dividend ($1.20) on a quarterly basis shows a decrease in the stock price that day of 30 cents per share and is lost in the noise of trading. Few notice that part of the price change is due to the "dividend".

When you own the stock of any company the most important criteria is to find one that is in a long term upward trend. Never buy a stock that is showing a decline no matter how "good" the company may be. Even sideways movements should be avoided. Keep in mind you are buying the stock to make money. Forget the dividends and all other "reasons" and remember if it isn't going up, don't buy it!

Albert W. Thomas

The Top 10 Reasons to Invest in Mutual Funds

2008-06-13T22:38:00.007-07:00

Everyone who follows the financial news has heard of mutual funds and knows the stock market has generally risen (with various ups-and-downs) for over 200 years. In fact, by most measures, the stock market has made more money for more people, and done it more reliably, than any other investment over the past 100 years! If you want to accumulate substantial wealth, you must include stocks in your investments!

But, most people who "invest" don't study the market. They don't understand it, and they don't have time to manage their portfolio wisely. That's where mutual funds come in. I respect that other people have other opinions, and certainly not all mutual funds are well managed - you MUST choose wisely and use appropriate caution! But, for most folks, a good, solid, boring mutual fund is the golden path to riches.

Here are my Top 10 reasons to us mutual funds:

1. Selection. You can select from thousands of funds (you'll find one to suit your needs) and you can get information on them easily. Magazines like "Money" are easy to find. Most credit unions have information, and your local library is a goldmine - and there's the Internet.

2. You Can Start Small. Most mutual funds will let you start with less than $1000, and if you set it up for automatic deposits, some will let you start with only $50. I've spent more than that in a restaurant! There is NO reason not to consider this!

3. Simplicity. You deposit 10% of your income every month. Just pay yourself first, then pay the mortgage, then pay everyone else.

4. Professional management. I don't always have time to research, select, and monitor individual stocks. So, I pay a professional a small fee to do it for me. A good fund manager will make you rich!

5. Compound interest. Depending on what index you pick, the U.S. stock market has gone up an average of over 12% per year for the past 10 years, and it's been almost that high for the past 20 years. The market fluxuates, but the beauty of this is, you don't care! Over 10, 20, or 30 years, the system works every time!

6. Dollar-cost-averaging. The details are complicated, but by investing every single month, whether the market is up or down, you get a tremendous boost from the mathematics. Your "average cost" will always be less than the "average price" you paid! And that is money in your pocket!

7. Diversification. A broad-based growth fund typically invests in dozens of companies in different industries, sometimes even in different countries around the world. If one stock goes down, hopefully dozens of others will go up. There is excellent protection and sound risk management built-in to these funds.

8. Specialization. If you prefer, and if you do the research, there are funds that invest in only a very small number of companies. If you can accept the additional risk, you can invest in one particular industry, or one country, or in companies of a certain size or that are environmentally responsible. This specialization offers the potential for even greater profits, but it can also bring greater potential risk. Study before you invest!

9. Fund "Families". Most mutual funds are offered by management companies that sponsor several different funds, with different objectives. They make it easy to move your money between funds, so as your goals change, you can adjust your investements with a quick phone call, or on the Internet.

10. Momentum. Once you get started, your enthusiam builds. Once you have money "in the market", you'll track it, manage it, and in all probability, your desire to save will increase. If you've had difficulty saving in the past?START! Those monthly statements will be positive reminders to do even more. Yes, you should invest in tax-sheltered retirement plans first, and yes, there are other investment possibilities. And yes, there is some risk, because the market can go down. But to retire wealthy, pick a great, long-term growth fund, invest regularly, and let the system work for you! The key, as always is: GET STARTED!

Here's to your success!

By Philip E. Humbert.

Stock Trading Secrets?

2008-06-13T22:38:00.005-07:00

How often have you come across an advertisement or e-mail proclaiming to "teach" you the stock trading secrets that Wall Street Insiders don't want you to know? Usually included in the descriptions of these trading products are claims such as "Make 10K monthly in minutes per day", or "Learn the secrets of Professional Stock Brokers", etc. etc. So what are these "secrets" that they are SELLING?

And if the Wall Street Insiders and the Professional Stock Brokers didn't want to reveal these trading secrets with you, then how come the companies or individuals selling you these products are so quick to give up these "Never before revealed" techniques?

Is it because they don't work, or are their products just the basic rules of trading rewritten (once again) in a new and thought provoking way? Or, if you believe everything you read, is it really some highly classified and secret method for trading stocks that is being SOLD here?

Stock Trading Secrets Revealed

In its most simplified form, the real trading secrets of the institutions and professional traders fit into at least one of the areas below...

1) A well developed trading system that has proven itself to profitably work over and over again in real-life trading

2) Knowing which trading strategies work best in which markets

3) The role of the Market Makers and how they use their influence to control the market and how you can use this to your advantage

4) What trading indicators are actually reliable

5) Which trading patterns are worth using, and when

6) Proper Money Management techniques, Money Management, and Money Management (note the emphasis here)

7) How to take advantage of margin

So, contrary to what they want you to believe, this is what they are selling you. I'm not saying that all of these trading products out there promoting unknown trading secrets are not worth the money, but quite the opposite. If they can provide you with truthful advice about any of the above areas, AND this advice is not easily accessible or publicized, then their product may greatly benefit your trading results.

But, if they are simply selling you generalized trading information that you can learn from any basic trading book, perhaps your money is better spent elsewhere. Buyer beware.

Trading For A Living - Part 1

2008-06-13T22:38:00.003-07:00

There can't be many traders who haven't at least considered the idea of telling the boss what they think of him, throwing it all in and going off to trade the stock market for a living. It's a big risk financially, and that uncertainty is what stops most from jumping ship. Is it really possible to trade for a living?

The Dream

You know how it is, you're sitting in a traffic jam at some unearthly hour of a particularly wet and miserable morning, on the way to the same office you have sat in for too long to remember, and you're thinking - there must be a better way - life shouldn't have to be like this.

Your mind starts to wander and you find yourself thinking back to that stock you bought only a week ago, and how it skyrocketed giving you enough profit to takes the kids to Disneyland in the summer, and you begin to consider if you couldn't make a fulltime living at this trading game. The advantages are certainly tempting; no more pointless meetings with the manager, hours to suit, holidays whenever you feel like it, and with your home-office - no more traffic jams.

Heck, come to that you could even make home anywhere you want it to be! By the time the traffic starts moving again. you're busily calculating how much cash you could make if all your trades went like that last one - you're almost ready to write your notice letter there and then!

The Bad News

Time for a reality check. Certainly all of the above benefits are there to be enjoyed, but it's a huge step from full time employee to full time trader. Are you really ready to give up that monthly pay-check just yet? Can you really cope not knowing how much money you're going to make month to month? Are you prepared for the months when you actually lose money instead of make it? There are many things to consider before taking the leap of faith.

Considerations

Before you even think about trading for a living you have to know how much money you need to live on, that is, how much cash do you need to generate every month in order to survive. As a financially minded person you already have good home accounts, or are at the very least vaguely aware of where the money goes. So take the annual figure (monthly is no good, you need to account for annual recurring items like insurance premiums, car servicing, and vacations), add 50% and divide by 12. Why add 50%? Because there will always be unexpected expenses, and as traders we are always prepared to expect the unexpected.

Now you know how much money you need each month, you can look at your savings and work out how much buffer money you have, that is, how long you could survive without earning anything at all. You can't expect to be an instantly profitable trader, and even the best and most experienced have periods of drawdown, so you need to be ready for the worst. If you can't live for at least six months from your savings then you are probably under capitalised and are not ready to give up that pay-check just yet.

An important but often overlooked aspect of under capitalisation is the effect it will have on your trading; if you are trading because you need the money, then you are trading scared and you're almost certainly going to lose. You cannot distance yourself from the money-aspect of the trade if you are relying on the money.

Living expenses are only one part of the financial equation. Next you must consider how much trading capital you need. This is the money actually facilitate trading, in other words your account balance for trading margin, and the money you will be spending on data feeds, software, and internet access. You must account for this separately, you cannot start eating into your daily living expenses money just because you took a bad trade and need some more margin.

The amount of trading capital you require will depend very much on your trading style. To day trade the US Stock Markets for example, you must have at least $25,000 in your account, so budget for $30,000 to allow for positions moving against you (if you fall below the $25k minimum even briefly, your account can be frozen for up to three months). If you are holding positions overnight you may manage with a lower balance but bear in mind your buying power and consequently returns will be reduced.

If all this is starting to sound expensive, well it is. There's no two ways about it, you simply cannot survive long term as a trader if you are under funded.

This article will be concluded in part two.

About The Author

By Geoff Turnbull

3 Components Needed for Beating the Market

2008-06-13T22:38:00.001-07:00

Time to look back

2004 is over, now we are in 2005. This is time to seriously look at performance of your personal investment, such as mutual fund, or individual stocks holdings, etc. Does your fund beat index last year? Does it beat index over past many years? How are you doing with your own stock investment comparing to SP&500 index?

If the answer is "great", well congratulations. You have your own way of beating market and making big money already.

If the answer is "not so great", or "failed to beat index". You have got a problem. You need to look deeper into the investment strategy you used or your fund used. You can not pretend that there is no problem when in fact there IS a problem. I know there are just so many people out there that can not face this. Let's face it, Almost everyone, include myself have ego that we JUST do not want to admit failure or mistake or any hint of it. Here comes the 1st Component below.

Component # 1 - ego, gut, perseverance

Value investing or investing in general is all about psychology, ego, attitude, and gut.

Investing is serious business. It is our money, our life savings at stake. Sometimes biting the bullet with pain to trash the ego is worth the pain if that makes you more money. Ego is one thing that we must avoid in stock market investing business in order to make big money ahead. You can not hide, you have to compare your own performance of past many years to SP&500 index. Of course, I am not saying that you should be comparing every month. It is OK to make some mistakes, here and there for certain months. However, it is NOT ok if the performance year over year has been bad. You have got to change if that is the case.

Although ego is something you should all avoid, perseverance is something you must treasure if you want to be that marathon winner. When you finished your due diligence and you have calculated your risk reward ratio and intrinsic value, go for it and stick with it. Do not be scared of negative comments or negative press, even if the source is from a famous author or from your close family. Value investing is lonely business. I know this for years. I have been criticized over past many years for numerous reasons, for not beeing able to sell at top, for not beeing able to buy at bottom, for picking a risky bankruptcy related stock, or for buying a low float small cap stock , blah blah. You know what? in the end, my investment performance is better than most of folks out there in the market, including those "pro" mutual fund managers.

I have got comments like this before: "Blast, I like your method, I know you are making big money. But, I can not do as you are doing. I can not hold. Especially bad news hit, I just have to sell, and my performance sucks".

Well, if he/she do not have gut to hold like I hold during bad time, she/he can not make big money with value investing. One can be all right in paper, right with value calculation, right with timing of purchase. However, if you can not fight against panic during minor negative news, you are out in the investing marathon.

Component # 2 - right method

Many investment methods are flawed, period. This is especially true for many short term oriented trading methods. Many mutual funds preach long term holding for their fund investors, but the fund managers themself engage in short-term trading like mad men. Performance of many momentum based growth funds or tech funds looked horrible for past 5 years. The reason for that is very simple: the investing method itself. Growth investing or short term trading sometimes can be very speculative and dangerous.

Wall street has famous theory that "the more risk, the more reward". Therefore, yeah, growth funds are risky, but if you want to have more reward, you have to chase risky stuff.

Wrong. The truth actually is "the more risk, the less reward".

I know I am going to be hammered by saying above non-conventional statement. I put out below example to back up my point.

Las Vegas is world famous place for gambling. As an average investor, you visit Las Vegas looking for opportunities to make big money with $50,000 investing capital. Let's assume the theory "the more risk, the more reward" is correct. Where are the riskiest opportunities out there in LV? Of course, Gambling. The potential reward can be astonishingly high. Black jacket, slot machine all have huge potential with 1000% or even more within minutes. You can make millions if you are lucky with your $50,000 principal at slot machine. Actually, it is FACT there are small group of gamblers who made millions in gambling in LV.

However, If you are sensible person, you know the answer. As high as the potential reward can be, the most likely result from gambling with $50,000 principal at LV is WIPEOUT. You lose all your hard-earned money.

If you are a rich investor with multi-million dollar capital looking for investment opportunities in Las Vegas. Certainly casino company stocks and bonds or private offering might be worth looking. However, the sad news is that no matter for stocks or bonds or private offerings, the investment reward is only around 10% to 20% yearly. Well, maybe it is not so sad at all. 10% or 20% of return is certainly a lot safer than gambling. Which reward is better, 10% - 20% return or wipeout?

Well, I know you may want to protest against my above example. Stock market can not be as bad as Casino, right?

It depends. Although casino gambling does not provide real investment opportunities as stock market provides, sometimes stock market can be even worse than casino due to insider manipulation, cheating books, etc. Over the past couple of years, I have heard so many negative news from stock market: Enron, Worldcom, mutual fund scandals, market timing, etc. But I have not heard of news of slot machine cheating by Las Vegas Casino company. Casino does not need to cheat to make money, the odds are against gamblers. Although stock market does offer real investment opportunities for businessman-like investors, stock market is also a place for gamblers to place their bet just like a Casino.

In stock market, the odds are against speculators.

Well, I know you may have more questions. Why Casino bonds or stock offerings or even private offering is only offering 10% to 20% returns?

Casino business is just another business. Numerous academic study has shown that in US history of past many decades, majority of companies can not maintain more than 20% of return on equity over the long run. Many companies are operating under loss, a negative return on equity. If you read books on Warren Buffet method of Philip Fisher method, you will know that they are experts in identifying those small group of high return on equity stocks. But for most companies, they are not as good as the stocks in which Buffet or Fisher invested.

Competitive economics is also at play here. If a company can make more than 20% of return consistently, the competition will heat up and more smart businessmen will enter this field to drive down the return.

If you think of value investing as special kind of business, you will realize how hard it is to maintain 20% return for the long run, as Warren Buffet achieved over past 50 years. Very few investors can do that. Value investing business is just as competitive as other business. Let's face it, if value investing is not competitive and easy to make big money consistently, many smart business guys out there in US will liquidate their own company and start their investment firm instead.

Component # 3 - right tools - new way to find great picks

Peter Lynch mentioned many methods to get the stock leads and identify the big winners in his book "One up in Wall Street". Tips from wife, tips from friends can land you the great stock idea. Although his methods are very valid, there are new ways to find that great pick in this internet stage: Software Data Mining.

It is quite fortunate that I am a data mining expert myself. If you are good at data mining, you can do yourself well too. You can design and fine-tune your data mining tools to get the leads you want and make big money by getting ahead of crowds.

A successful value investor really has to find great pick ahead of big guys and move fast in order to make big money. In this internet stage, big guys such as mutual funds or hedge funds really have no advantage over small guys or small firms such as BlastInvest. At BlastInvest, we do stock data mining with our in-house software just as good as those big guys, if not better. Sarbane Oxley new law also helped individual investors and small firms like BlastInvest a lot because most of public companies now disclose information to public and to big institutions simultaneously through conference calls or press releases. Insiders now also have to report insider buying and selling within couple of days of transaction instead of several months before. Whenever insiders buy or sell, You need to know that immediately within a few days. You want to buy when insiders buy and you may want to sell when insiders are selling too.

Don't despair if you do not know how to program software yourself. There are lots of tools and services out there to help you out. Here I want to talk about the most useful tools out there.

(1) Valuation screening tool. You need at least one tool for screening against value metrics for you. Yahoo stock screening is very useful tool and it is free.

(2) Insider buying tool. This is must-have tool to get you the latest insider buying stocks. There are many offering there, fee-based or free. We offer free insider-buying weekly service as well at BlastInvest.

(3) Strategy screen. Validea.com offers an interesting stock screening tool that can screen based on methods of Ben Graham, Warren Buffet, or Peter Lynch. It has limitations too. I have used it and found that its Warren Buffet tool is not working well and its Ben Graham strategy screening is only looking for "defensive" type of stocks, not the "enterprising investor" type of stocks. My BIRTP newsletter is really geared toward "enterprising investor" type of stocks rather than "defensive investor" type of stocks. Heck, still Validea is best kind of tool available at affordable price in this category.

Final thought

If you follow up with my above 3 components of value investing, you are on your path for financial freedom.

However, if you can not do as I stated above, do not naively believe that you can make big money alone in stock market mainly by hunch. Buy the stock screening tools if necessary, get the professional help from real experts and consider my newsletter BIRTP as well.

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By Henry Lu

Forces that Move Stock Prices

2008-06-06T00:41:00.000-07:00

Among the largest forces that affect stock prices are inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities and currencies. At times the stock market suddenly reverses itself followed typically by published explanations phrased to suggest that the writer's keen observation allowed him to predict the market turn. Such circumstances leave investors somewhat awed and amazed at the infinite amount of continuing factual input and infallible interpretation needed to avoid going against the market. While there are continuing sources of input that one needs in order to invest successfully in the stock market, they are finite. If you contact me at my web site, I'll be glad to share some with you. What is more important though is to have a robust model for interpreting any new information that comes along. The model should take into account human nature, as well as, major market forces. The following is a personal working cyclical model that is neither perfect nor comprehensive. It is simply a lens through which sector rotation, industry behavior and changing market sentiment can be viewed.
As always, any understanding of markets begins with the familiar human traits of greed and fear along with perceptions of supply, demand, risk and value. The emphasis is on perceptions where group and individual perceptions usually differ. Investors can be depended upon to seek the largest return for the least amount of risk. Markets, representing group behavior, can be depended upon to over react to almost any new information. The subsequent price rebound or relaxation makes it appear that initial responses are much to do about nothing. But no, group perceptions simply oscillate between extremes and prices follow. It is clear that the general market, as reflected in the major averages, impacts more than half of a stock's price, while earnings account for most of the rest.
With this in mind, stock prices should rise with falling interest rates because it becomes cheaper for companies to finance projects and operations that are funded through borrowing. Lower borrowing costs allow higher earnings which increase the perceived value of a stock. In a low interest rate environment, companies can borrow by issuing corporate bonds, offering rates slightly above the average Treasury rate without incurring excessive borrowing costs. Existing bond holders hang on to their bonds in a falling interest rate environment because the rate of return they are receiving exceeds anything being offered in newly issued bonds. Stocks, commodities and existing bond prices tend to rise in a falling interest rate environment. Borrowing rates, including mortgages, are closely tied to the 10 year Treasury interest rate. When rates are low, borrowing increases, effectively putting more money into circulation with more dollars chasing after a relatively fixed quantity of stocks, bonds and commodities.
Bond traders continually compare interest rate yields for bonds with those for stocks. Stock yield is computed from the reciprocal P/E ratio of a stock. Earnings divided by price gives earning yield. The assumption here is that the price of a stock will move to reflect its earnings. If stock yields for the S&P 500 as a whole are the same as bond yields, investors prefer the safety of bonds. Bond prices then rise and stock prices decline as a result of money movement. As bond prices trade higher, due to their popularity, the effective yield for a given bond will decrease because its face value at maturity is fixed. As effective bond yields decline further, bond prices top out and stocks begin to look more attractive, although at a higher risk. There is a natural oscillatory inverse relationship between stock prices and bond prices. In a rising stock market, equilibrium has been reached when stock yields appear higher than corporate bond yields which are higher than Treasury bond yields which are higher than savings account rates. Longer term interest rates are naturally higher than short term rates.
That is, until the introduction of higher prices and inflation. Having an increased supply of money in circulation in the economy, due to increased borrowing under low interest rate incentives, causes commodity prices to rise. Commodity price changes permeate throughout the economy to affect all hard goods. The Federal Reserve, seeing higher inflation, raises interest rates to remove excess money from circulation to hopefully reduce prices once again. Borrowing costs rise, making it more difficult for companies to raise capital. Stock investors, perceiving the effects of higher interest rates on company profits, begin to lower their expectations of earnings and stock prices fall.
Long term bond holders keep an eye on inflation because the real rate of return on a bond is equal to the bond yield minus the expected rate of inflation. Therefore, rising inflation makes previously issued bonds less attractive. The Treasury Department has to then increase the coupon or interest rate on newly issued bonds in order to make them attractive to new bond investors. With higher rates on newly issued bonds, the price of existing fixed coupon bonds falls, causing their effective interest rates to increase, as well. So both stock and bond prices fall in an inflationary environment, mostly because of the anticipated rise in interest rates. Domestic stock investors and existing bond holders find rising interest rates bearish. Fixed return investments are most attractive when interest rates are falling.
In addition to having too many dollars in circulation, inflation can also be increased by a drop in the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. The cause of the dollar's recent drop is perceptions of its decreased value due to continuing national deficits and trade imbalances. Foreign goods, as a result, can become more expensive. This would make US products more attractive abroad and improve the US trade balance. However, if before that happens, foreign investors are perceived as finding US dollar investments less attractive, putting less money into the US stock market, a liquidity problem can result in falling stock prices. Political turmoil and uncertainty can also cause the value of currencies to decrease and the value of hard commodities to increase. Commodity stocks do quite well in this environment.
The Federal Reserve is seen as a gate keeper who walks a fine line. It may raise interest rates, not only to prevent inflation, but also to make US investments remain attractive to foreign investors. This particularly applies to foreign central banks who buy huge quantities of Treasuries. Concern about rising rates makes both stock and bond holders uneasy for the above stated reasons and stock holders for yet another reason. If rising interest rates take too many dollars out of circulation, it can cause deflation. Companies are then unable to sell products at any price and prices fall dramatically. The resulting effect on stocks is negative in a deflationary environment due to a simple lack of liquidity.
In summary, in order for stock prices to move smoothly, perceptions of inflation and deflation must be in balance. A disturbance in that balance is usually seen as a change in interest rates and the foreign exchange rate. Stock and bond prices normally oscillate in opposite directions due to differences in risk and the changing balance between bond yields and apparent stock yields. When we find them moving in the same direction, it means a major change is taking place in the economy. A falling US dollar raises fears of higher interest rates which impacts stock and bond prices negatively. The relative sizes of market capitalization and daily trading help explain why bonds and currencies have such a large impact on stock prices. First, let's consider total capitalization. Three years ago the bond market was from 1.5 to 2 times larger than the stock market. With regard to trading volume, the daily trading ratio of currencies, Treasuries and stocks was then 30:7:1, respectively.